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文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。 相似文献
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通过对支援柬埔寨、几内亚桩基工程的施工实践,总结出在境外工程项目的管理中,要制定相应的管理制度与突发事件的应急预案,在施工过程中要注意政局变化,加强卫生疾病的防治,进行必要的物质储备和规避风险等注意事项及解决方法．对地勘单位拓展海外市场提出了建设性意见,具有一定的借鉴意义。 相似文献
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I. G. SIMMONS 《Geographical review》1998,88(1):114-126
ABSTRACT. An attempt is made to give a 10,000-year perspective on the relations of history, culture, and the nonhuman world called nature. A Holocene narrative of processes separates human societies and their cultures: things that individuate and pull apart to the point of fragmentation versus those that are binding. These tendencies toward convergence may coalesce, as with the natural sciences or global electronic technology. Equally, they may involve centrifugal processes, as in the creative arts or in forms of representation accessible only to certain groups or cultures. The environment resonates in a series of segmented channels, considerably complicated by a binary Western culture, often with 1 as acceptable and o as the Other. Is a purposeful path laid down by someone else and followed to its predetermined end in Utopia, or do we cherish something more open and contingent? 相似文献
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AbstractThe intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts highest species diversity in environments experiencing intermediate intensity disturbance, after an intermediate timespan. Because many landscapes comprise mosaics with complex disturbance histories, the theory implies that each patch in those mosaics should have a distinct level of diversity reflecting the magnitude of disturbance and the time since it occurred. We model changing patterns of species richness across a landscape experiencing varied scenarios of simulated disturbance in order to predict first the variation of richness through time in individual patches, based on their disturbance histories, and then the changing patterns of richness across the landscape through time, representing the cumulative impact of changing richness within the individual patches. Model outputs show that individual landscape patches have highly variable species richness through time, with the trajectory reflecting the timing, intensity and sequence of disturbances. When the results are mapped across the landscape, the resulting temporal and spatial complexity reveals a distribution of biodiversity that is strikingly contingent on the details of disturbance history. These results illustrate the danger of generalization (in either data interpretation or management decisions), as IDH actually imposes a highly variable pattern of diversity. 相似文献
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Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics. 相似文献
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A probabilistic description of the wind over Liverpool Bay with application to oil spill simulations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A.J. Elliott 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2004,61(4):569-581
Surface winds from the UK Meteorological Office mesoscale (12 km grid) atmospheric model have been used to define the wind at a location in Liverpool Bay during 1997–2001. Winds from the SW (centred on 240°) with a speed of about 10 m/s (20 knots) were the most frequent, although weaker winds from the SE were also common. The wind spectra were red in character and showed no evidence for a peak at the synoptic (2–5 day) time scale; however, a zero-up-crossing analysis suggested a dominant periodicity at 3.1 days, and at this time scale the winds were spatially coherent over a distance of 300 km. A wind direction transition matrix was derived to quantify the probability with which the wind changed between two specified directions. This information was then used with an estimate of the mean duration of a wind event to compute a stochastic wind time series that contained a similar energy level, periodicity, and direction variability to the archived wind data. The archived and stochastic winds were then used in 1000 oil spill contingency simulations during which estimates of the mean and minimum times taken for oil to reach the coastline, and the percentage of the oil impacting selected sites were computed. The stochastic winds provided more realistic results, when compared against those derived using the wind archive, than those obtained using a wind rose representation of the winds. The derivation and use of a stochastic wind time series has application to a range of modelling studies. 相似文献
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《Urban geography》2013,34(3):187-211
Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas. 相似文献
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Jonathan D. Phillips 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(1):37-43
Four critical challenges for physical geography are examined here: deterioration of common cores of knowledge associated with increasing intellectual niche specialization; the need for conceptual thinking and problem‐framing to catch up with measurement and analysis technology; and the need to explicitly incorporate human decision making in analysis of earth surface systems. The future calls for physical geography to embrace and confront the creative tension between nomothetic and interpretive science, and to fruitfully and explicitly integrate these approaches. 相似文献
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应用列联表方法研究化石群落间的关联性问题。列联表方法是从变量的独立性出发研究两两变量间的关系。该方法的优，或是不但能用数字表示两变量间的关联程度，而且还对其关联性作显著性检验，使所得结果更为精确。本文介绍的数学原理和计算方法，力求简明易懂。最后选择了实际例子借以说明列联表方法在研究此问题上的良好效果。 相似文献