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Duane Chapman 《Natural Resources Research》1993,2(4):331-339
In theoretical Hotelling-type models of resource depletion, oil use declines monotonically over time to depletion. However, world oil use has been increasing for several years. Can theory and reality be reconciled? The answer is affirmative, if theory is modified to accommodate outward-shifting demand functions that are rising in response to growth in world population and income. Under this assumption, a Hotelling depletion model projects a 50-year period of increasing world oil use before the decline to exhaustion. This holds for both competitive and monopolistic regimes. Hotelling theory has been criticized by Adelman and others, in part because of the unreality of the theoretical projections. By combining the modified Hotelling theory with U.S. Geological Survey resource estimates, the numerical projections seem congruent with Adelman's near-term expectations. Finally, a backstop technology, such as renewable biomass ethanol, introduces a new dimension. Assuming a $2-per-gallon cost for the ethanol, the modified Hotelling theory projects accelerating use of conventional oil until depletion or substitution. Consequently, it does not seem unreasonable to believe that a finite, limited resource of conventional oil is consistent with growing use for several decades. A projected exhaustion in 100 years is consisten with increasing use for 50 years. 相似文献
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The deep oil exploration drillings in Denmark have shown that especially the Danish Embayment contains low enthalpy geothermal resources associated with warm aquifers. The most promising reservoirs have been found in highly permeable Upper Triassic sand and sandstone beds, which cover at least 5000 km2 at depths of 2000–3000 m and at temperatures of 60–100°C. The porosity of the main reservoir is of 15–25%, and the permeability is presumed to be approximately 1 darcy (10–12 m2) or higher. A layer thickness of 30–60 m has been observed on a number of localities. Also the Middle Jurassic and the Lower Triassic contain reservoirs of interest. A major geothermal exploration work is planned with seismic investigations, drillings to depths of 2000–4000 m and probably establishment of pilot district heating plants. 相似文献
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The broad-spectrum herbicide glyphosate has become the largest-selling crop-protection product worldwide. The increased use of glyphosate is associated with the appearance of a growing number of tolerant or resistant weeds, with socio-environmental consequences apart from the loss of productivity. In 2002, a glyphosate-resistant biotype of johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense (L.)) appeared in Argentina and now covers at least 10,000 ha. This paper analyzes the driving forces behind the emergence and spread of this weed and also examines management responses and their implications.Preventive strategies against glyphosate-resistant johnsongrass fail because of the institutional setting. Reactive measures, however, transfer the risks to the society and the environment through the introduction of novel genetically modified crops that allow the use of yet more herbicide. This in turn reinforces the emergence of herbicide-resistant weeds, constituting a new phenomenon of intensification, the “transgenic treadmill”. 相似文献
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《Geoforum》2017
One of the most prominent stylized facts about contemporary capitalism concerns its “financialization.” Like all economic stylized facts, however, facts about financialization are recognized by some commentators and not by others. This article offers one explanation why. It argues that the claims we can make about “the economy” depend upon how we envision that economy in the first place. The economy can be pictured in myriad ways – it is multiple, not singular – and different pictures of it enable the identification of different stylized facts about it. So it is with financialization. The article illustrates this by examining the history of two different traditions of picturing the economy. One – national accounting – increasingly has enabled financialization to be seen; the other – mainstream economics – generally has not. 相似文献
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Kristin Asdal 《Geoforum》2008,39(1):123-132
In this article I make use of a combination of actor-network-theory, governmentality studies and feminist studies of science to show how nature is done or enacted within politics and administration. In particular I show how it relates to the theories and practices of economics and accounting. I explore the process by which the ‘critical limits’ of nature under the impact of acidification was created as a part of the politics and negotiations about acid rain. I demonstrate that even though the outcome was not ‘Nature’ as such, understood as a form of moral high-ground, the effect of this process was to produce ‘a nature as a whole’, in a process of unification. This I argue can only be understood relationally: ‘Nature’ is taken into account by way of accounting. In doing this I engage with Latour’s work on the politics of Nature and argue that nature is not necessarily such a deadly tool to politics as is sometimes taken for granted. Before we throw Nature out with our empirical studies of sciences, natures and politics, in the plural, we need to look first at how Nature-wholes emerge, are enacted, and take part in politics. 相似文献
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Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future. 相似文献
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Vast reserves of marine minerals are known to occur within the Mexican Exclusive Economic Zone. These reserves include: (1) heavy mineral placers rich in titanium and iron along the coast of San Antonio del Mar, Baja California and the southern States of Oaxaca and Guerrero; (2) phosphorites, which represent the only source for superphosphate fertilizers along the Pacific coast off the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of Tehuantepec; and (3) manganese oxide deposits in nodule and crusts located adjacent to the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and containing high concentrations of Cu + Ni + Co (up to 1.9%), which are essential for the steel and super-alloy industries. Few but important efforts toward surveying these deposits have been carried out by Mexican and international researchers. Relevant data generated by these investigations are reviewed here and put together in a single document. Adequate knowledge of Mexican mineral resources is essential for the development of management strategies when offshore mining starts during this century. Thus, the review discusses the economics inherent to ocean mining in Mexico, setting baselines for future exploration and development activities in the Mexican Exclusive Economic Zone. 相似文献
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This paper explores the influence of Walter Isard, his work, and the field of regional science generally on transportation geography. It argues that Isards impact was both subtle and significant. Regional science greatly influenced the emergence of modern transportation geography in the 1950s. Transportation themes and methods from Isards own work provided early building blocks for transportation geography. Moreover, Isard and regional science contributed importantly to the development of the intellectual network of persons, places, and institutions that early on defined the subfield. Regional science and transportation geography have diverged in recent decades, but opportunities exist for renewed interaction.The author thanks Doug Fleming and Dick Morrill for comments on an earlier version of this paper. 相似文献