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1.
Frequent frost occurrences in the Kenyan highlands have had devastating effects on agricultural productivity. With inadequate management systems to mitigate the impacts, farmers have often had to bear the burden of losses resulting from frost damage. While agriculture in Kenya remains dependent on weather and climate, the agricultural economy of Kenya continues to suffer, underscoring the need for building local knowledge as basis for development of early warning systems. The current paper attempts to delineate frost zones by statistically characterizing them based on known risk factors related to topography (elevation, convexity, aspect, upslope flow length) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Through binary logistic regression, a logistic regression model was developed utilizing observation data (frost occurrence and non-occurrence) as a binary dependent variable to estimate the probability of frost occurrence. Assuming a 0.5 probability cut-off threshold between frost occurrence and non-occurrence, an overall accuracy of 81% with area under Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve of 0.88 was obtained. No evidence of lack of model fit was detected. This model outperforms the currently operational model that utilizes MODIS LST alone to detect frost zones in the Kenyan tea plantations. It provides an improved method for effective delineation of frost zones by incorporating local topographic characteristics. 相似文献
2.
2016年5月15日清晨河西走廊东部发生区域性强霜冻天气,对农林业生产造成了2004年以来最为严重的灾害。本文利用实时MICAPS常规观测资料、物理量场和河西走廊东部区域内6个国家自动气象观测站和93个区域气象站观测资料,对这次冻害天气过程的天气学成因进行分析,在此基础上分析了霜冻对农业的影响。结果表明强冷空气爆发是造成冻害的直接原因;0 cm地面温度和气温≤0 ℃持续时间长,导致农林作物深度冻伤;前期气温偏高使得农林作物发育期提前,加之霜冻出现时间偏迟,农林作物抵抗冻害的能力明显下降,冻害影响加重;冻害发生后,温度急剧上升、湿度迅速减小,作物水分强烈蒸腾,作物细胞失去受损,导致受灾程度加重。 相似文献
3.
4.
东北大兴安岭多年冻土区工程地质特征及评价 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
土体在冻结状态具有极高的压缩模量, 具有弹性体的工程地质特征。但是在冻土地温升高过程中, 这种特征急剧衰减, 产生蠕变和流变, 建筑物地基强度降低, 导致建筑物基础破坏。同时土体在冻结过程中产生的冻胀作用也将导致建筑物基础的破坏。东北大兴安岭地区多年冻土为高纬度低海拔多年冻土, 其分布具有明显纬度地带性特点。本文在分析该区多年冻土分布特征及冻土工程地质特点的基础上, 对由于土体的冻胀和融沉导致的建筑物基础的危害进行分类研究, 针对性的提出了用热棒降低土体温度以保证多年冻土稳定及用排水的方法减少水对建筑物地基多年冻土影响的工程病害处理措施。 相似文献
5.
The lithalsas in the Hudson Bay region of northern Québec, Canada, are the closest modern analogs of ancient features that collapsed to form conspicuous circular depressions (“viviers”) common in the Hautes-Fagnes, a region in Belgium. Observations made in both regions are complementary and suggest that these mounds formed by frost heaving displacing soil not only upward, as previously assumed, but also laterally. This lateral displacement is consistent with diverse observations and inferences, which include (1) the simple rounded outline, either circular or oval, typical of both active and relic lithalsas; (2) evidence of local lateral extension inferred from exposures of the relic forms; (3) the relative inefficiency of solifluction in accumulating surface material to form the peripheral ramparts of remnant lithalsas due to the very gentle slopes of the mounds; and (4) the dip of ice lenses within a lithalsa in the Hudson Bay region, perhaps indicating that the freezing front dipped outward along its periphery. The growth of segregation ice is the primary driver for the vertical growth and lateral enlargement of a lithalsa. 相似文献
6.
对运城市终霜冻资料时间序列进行了周期分析,再利用基于预测误差平方和(PRESS)准则的逐步回归周期分析方法建立运城市终霜冻预报模型,预测终霜冻出现的日期,经检验和试报表明,该模型预测效果较好,具有实用价值。 相似文献
7.
Stratigraphic and chemical data from the ice core of an ‘anthropogenic palsa’ at Toolik Lake, Alaska, indicate that the mound formed as a consequence of hydrostatic pressure developed in an isolated hydrologic system within the active layer. Survey data for five palsas over a three-year period suggest that growth was essentially complete at the time of the initial survey; a net decrease of summit elevation is apparent in all five mounds, but complete degradation of the palsas would require several decades at observed rates. Because accurate field measurements of thermal and hydrologic evolution in such features are extremely difficult, simulation of the environmental conditions and events involved in palsa growth is an important supplement to field observation. Both analytic and finite-element models yield results that are in substantial agreement with inferences drawn from observational data. 相似文献
8.
The bedrock freeze-thaw and moisture regimes at an actively eroding site on the Niagara Escarpment, Bruce Peninsula, southern Ontario, were monitored between December 1983 and April 1984, and the results compared with amounts of debris collected in an adjacent rock trap. Frost wedging in pre-existing rock fissures is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed rockfall events; hydration effects are negligible. Debris production was more closely related to the duration of the freezing leg of the freeze-thaw cycle than to intensity or to cycle frequency. Release also coincided with periods of high pore saturation (> 60 per cent) and the seepage of water from cracks and fissures. Fewer freeze-thaw cycles were recorded in the air than at 1 and 3.5 cm in the bedrock. The number of cycles that could be declared geomorphologically effective according to established temperature criteria was normally less than half the total number of freeze-thaw cycles recorded in both air and bedrock. Under the current temperature regime at the field site, few effective cycles are capable of penetrating more than 5 cm into the free face. 相似文献
9.
The rate of bedrock weathering by frost action: Field measurements and a predictive model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Norikazu Matsuoka 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(1):73-90
Shattering rate, surface temperature, moisture content, and the physical and strength properties of bedrock were measured in four rockwall sites of the Japanese Alps. Five-year observations revealed that the bedrock shattering rate was usually much higher in the freeze-thaw period from October to next May than in the frost-free period from June to September. This indicates that frost action is the most important shattering process, although unusual heavy rainstorms in summer are also responsible for the shattering. A combination of some empirical relationships derived from recent laboratory experiments leads to a predictive model of the frost shattering rate. This model shows that the annual shattering rate is dependent on the annual freeze-thaw frequency on the rock surface, and the degree of saturation and tensile strength of the rock masses. The coefficients involved in the model were determined using the field data. 相似文献
10.
Measurements were made of the water content in coastal rocks, by simulating tidal oscillations in the laboratory, and by field measurement in eastern Canada. If rapid freezing takes place upon exposure to the air, saturation levels may be high enough to permit frost weathering in fine grained rocks in the lower portions of the intertidal zone. Near the high tidal level, however, it may be dependent upon a supply of water from the ice foot and from melting snow. If freezing is slow, frost action may be inhibited by desorption of the rocks while they are exposed by the ebb tide. There was no evidence of a level of permanent sea water saturation within the intertidal zone. Ambient temperature and humidity may affect the rate of rock desorption. 相似文献