北半球阻塞高压的维持Ⅱ:瞬变扰动强迫和平均流位涡平流的形成   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

刘辉  曾庆存  吴国雄 《气象学报》1995,53(3):337-348

着重探讨大西洋阻高和东亚阻高个例中瞬变扰动位涡（涡度）输送强迫和太平洋阻高中平均流位涡平流的形成机理。结果表明，扰动在阻高西南部西风分流区因形变而产生的扰动拟能向更小尺度串级过程，并不是扰动位涡输送强迫形成的必要机理。扰－流相互作用在阻高西（北）部非分流气流中也十分显著。数值试验表明，这一相互作用也可能是扰动强迫作用形成的机理。而青藏高原和附近海陆对比的强迫作用则可能是太平洋阻高中平均流的位涡平流形成的重要因素。对比分析表明，阻高维持机制的地域性差别可能与其上游（如青藏高原地区、落基山脉）地形和热源强迫作用不同有关。  相似文献   

太阳能光伏发电预报方法的应用效果检验与评价     

王林  陈正洪  唐俊 《气象》2014,40(8):1006-1012

基于湖北省气象新能源研究中心光伏电站一年完整的发电数据与同期气象资料,对辐射和发电功率短期预报方法进行检验分析,结果表明:(1)太阳辐射度预报与实况有很好的对应关系,相关系数在0.77以上,均通过a=0.001的显著性水平检验。(2)光伏发电功率预报的短期方法中,以模式辐照度订正值代入光电转换模型的方法最优,预报第一天的相对均方根误差为0.16。(3)太阳辐射预报及光伏发电功率预报随太阳高度角变化而呈一定的规律性,冬季中午误差最大,夏季晚上误差最小;阴雨天气误差明显高于晴天。如何降低阴雨天气预报时的误差将是下一步工作中需要研究的重点。  相似文献   

台风“麦莎”的强度对台风前部飑线发展过程影响的研究   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3  

刘佳  沈新勇  张大林  许映龙  毕明玉 《大气科学》2013,37(5):1025-1037

对2005年8月5日16时(UTC,下同)至6日00时发生的一次台风前部飑线过程进行了数值模拟,分析表明:台前飑线在母体台风和副高之间的湿区生成。台风为这次台前飑线过程提供了有利的条件,包括强的低空急流输送充沛的水汽,强的不稳定环境产生大的对流有效位能以及强的地表辐合,使得初始的离散的对流单体组织发展形成台前飑线。成熟时期的台前飑线虽然比中纬度和热带飑线的变压强度小,但是具有更强的低层暖湿空气入流,中层的入流范围也更加宽广。敏感性试验结果表明:台风强度越强,其台前飑线的回波强度越强,移动速度更快,生命史也更长。强台风使得低空垂直风切变更大,有利于台前飑线的生成和发展,在台前飑线发展成熟后,低空垂直风切变强度减小,不利于台前飑线的维持,加之低空水汽输送的减少,使其逐渐趋向衰亡。  相似文献   

2007年淮河流域暴雨期间大气环流特征分析   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

桂海林  周兵  金荣花 《气象》2010,36(8):8-18

利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料及国家气象信息中心30年气候平均降水资料,通过动力诊断与分析手段研究了2007年6—7月发生在我国淮河流域的暴雨。结果表明,淮河流域的环流垂直结构和降水有着非常好的对应关系。暴雨期间,鄂霍茨克海阻高与乌拉尔山阻高这种双阻高形势对于淮河流域的持续降水提供了很好的条件;南亚高压高层(200 hPa)基本为正散度区,低层(850 hPa)为负散度区,上下层强烈的抽吸结构对暴雨的发生也是非常有利的条件,同时,在淮河暴雨期问,南亚高压(200 hPa)与500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压有着相向而行的移动路径;位涡对于分析冷空气的活动,有着比较清晰的意义,暴雨发生前,有明显的正位涡异常从高纬度向低纬度伸展。大气非绝热加热分析结果显示,视热源和视水汽汇两者的高值中心与相应时段暴雨中心位置一致。  相似文献   

Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere —— A Climatological Analysis     

Olivia MARTIUS  Cornelia SCHWIERZ  Michael SPRENGER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):367-380

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.  相似文献   

A Case Study on a Quasi-Stationary Meiyu Front Bringing About Continuous Rainstorms with Piecewise Potential Vorticity Inversion          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Yuchun  LI Zechun  XIAO Ziniu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2008,22(2):202-223

A 4-day persistent rainstorm resulting in serious flooding disasters occurred in the north of Fujian Province under the influences of a quasi-stationary Meiyu front during 5-8 June 2006. With 1°× 1° latitude and longitude NCEP reanalysis data and the ground surface rainfall, using the potential vorticity （PV） analysis and PV inversion method, the evolution of main synoptic systems, and the corresponding PV and PV perturbation （or PV anomalies） and their relationship with heavy rainfall along the Meiyu front are analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanism of the formation, development, and maintenance of the Meiyu front. Furthermore, the PV perturbations related to different physics are separated to investigate their different roles in the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The results show： the formation and persistence of the Meiyu front in a quasi-WE orientation are mainly due to the maintenance of the high-pressure systems in its south/north sides （the West Pacific subtropical high/ the high pressure band extending from the Korean Peninsula to east of North China）. The Meiyu front is closely associated with the PV in the lower troposphere. The location of the positive PV perturbation on the Meiyu front matches well with the main heavy rainfall area along the Meiyu front. The PV inversion reveals that the balanced winds satisfying the nonlinear balanced assumption represent to a large extent the real atmospheric flow and its evolution basically reflects the variation of stream flow associated with the Meiyu front. The unbalanced flow forms the convergence band of the Meiyu front and it mainly comes from the high-pressure system in the north side of the Meiyu front. The positive PV perturbation related to latent heat release in the middle-lower troposphere is one of the main factors influencing the formation and development of the Meiyu front. The positive vorticity band from the total balanced winds is in accordance with the Meiyu front band and the magnitude of the posit  相似文献   

Access to electricity for all and the role of decentralized solar power in sub-Saharan Africa     

Kirsten Ulsrud 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(1):54-63

ABSTRACT

Several hundred million people in sub-Saharan Africa are at risk of being without access to electricity by 2030 despite the ongoing work aimed at achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 7—sustainable energy for all. Based on qualitative interviews, quantitative surveys, observation, and participation in Kenya and Senegal between 2010 and 2018, the author aims to explain why the rate of progress is slower than intended. The findings highlight three strong hindrances: lack of affordability due to extreme poverty, mismatch between the village-level outreach of grid-based electricity systems and the geography of settlements, and lack of consideration given to gender inequality. The findings also provide new insights into the ways that decentralized small-scale solar power increasingly meets some of the shortcomings of centralized grids in addressing these three issues, even in rural areas where grids are already present. The author concludes that the ways in which village communities have combined the use of solar-powered energy with grid-supplied energy indicates the importance of the former and the need to intensify efforts to improve solar power delivery models and integrate them fully in energy sector strategies.  相似文献   

地形追随坐标系下埃特尔位涡的计算     

李政  费建芳  黄小刚  程小平 《气象学报》2017,75(6):1011-1026

随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔（Ertel）位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程（插值法）,是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z（p）坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡（直接法）,在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。   相似文献   

风光发电系统在无人值守地震台站的设计     

曲利  董晓娜  胡旭辉  李永红  蔡伟光 《地震地磁观测与研究》2012,33(3):276-279

风光互补发电技术在边防、通信、公路等已得到广泛应用,能否将这一绿色、清洁、可再生能源应用于地震无人值守台站,山东省在龙口地震台已做先期试点,通过一年试运行,风光互补发电系统能够满足地震无人值守台站的工作要求。  相似文献   

Diagnostic analysis of the evolution mechanism for a vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李论  张人禾  温敏 《大气科学进展》2011,28(4):797-808

Based on the final analyses data (FNL) of the Global Forecasting System of the NCEP and the obser- vational radiosonde data, the evolution mechanism of an eastward-moving low-level vortex over the Tibetan Plateau in June 2008 was analyzed. The results show that the formation of the vortex was related to the convergence between the northwesterly over the central Tibetan Plateau from the westerly zone and the southerly from the Bay of Bengal at 500 hPa, and also to the divergence associated with the entrance re- gion of the upper westerly jet at 200 hPa. Their dynamic effects were favorable for ascending motion and forming the vortex over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, the effect of the atmospheric heat source (Q1) is discussed based on a transformed potential vorticity (PV) tendency equation. By calculating the PV budgets, we showed that Q1 had a great inffuence on the intensity and moving direction of the vortex. In the developing stage of the vortex, the heating of the vertically integrated Q1 was centered to the east of the vortex center at 500 hPa, increasing PV tendency to the east of the vortex. As a result, the vortex strengthened and moved eastward through the vertically uneven distribution of Q1. In the decaying stage, the horizontally uneven heating of Q1 at 500 hPa weakened the vortex through causing the vortex tubes around the vortex to slant and redistributing the vertical vorticity field.  相似文献