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1.
采用目前国家干旱监测业务实行的MCI指数,利用Morlet小波、经验正交函数(EOF)等方法,分析了福建省1961—2019年全省66个气象站MCI指数表征的干湿状况和干旱变化特征。结果表明:福建省存在明显的干湿气候特征,具有显著的6—8 a和22 a的周期振荡,内陆山区干湿变化周期比沿海长,在季节尺度上各季均存在多时间尺度和地域差异化的特点;其空间变化具有3种典型模态,反映了季风降水多寡和地形差异。MCI表征的干旱过程时空分布与历史干旱事件相吻合,秋季和冬季是福建省干旱发生频率最高的季节,春季和夏季是干旱强度最强的季节;闽江口以南沿海地区干旱发生率明显高于内陆地区,全省出现同步干旱的机率较小(12%)。 相似文献
2.
Filip Oulehle Milan Fischer Jakub Hruška Tomáš Chuman Pavel Krám Tomáš Navrátil Miroslav Tesař Miroslav Trnka 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14204
In 1994, a network of small catchments (GEOMON) was established in the Czech Republic to determine input–output element fluxes in semi-natural forest ecosystems recovering from anthropogenic acidification. The network consists from 16 catchments and the primary observations of elements fluxes were complemented by monitoring of biomass stock, element pools in soil and vegetation, and the main water balance components. Over last three decades, reductions of SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions were followed by sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition reductions of 75% and 30%, respectively. Steeper declines of strong acid anion concentrations compared to cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH4) in precipitation resulted in precipitation pH increase from 4.5 to 5.2 in bulk precipitation and from 4.0 to 5.1 in spruce throughfall. Stream chemistry responded to changes in deposition: S leaching declined. However at majority of catchments soils acted as a net source of S to runoff, delaying recovery. Stream pH increased at acidic streams (pH < 6) and aluminium concentration decreased. Stream nitrate (NO3) concentration declined by 60%, considerably more than N deposition. Stream NO3 concentration was tightly positively related to stream total dissolved nitrogen to total phosphorus (P) ratio, suggesting the role of P availability on N retention. Trends in dissolved organic carbon fluxes responded to both acidification recovery and to runoff temporal variation. An exceptional drought occurred between 2014 and 2019. Over this recent period, streamflow decreased by ≈ 40% on average compared to 1990s, due to the increases of soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration by ≈ 30% and declines in precipitation by ≈ 15% on average across the elevational gradient. Sharp decreases of stream runoff at catchments <650 m a.s.l. corresponded to areas of recent forest decline caused by bark beetle infestation on drought stressed spruce forests. Understanding of the interactions among legacies of acidification and eutrophication, drought effects on the water cycle and forest disturbance dynamics is requisite for effective management of forested ecosystems under anthropogenic influence. 相似文献
3.
Chris Soulsby Bernhard Scheliga Aaron Neill Jean-Christophe Comte Doerthe Tetzlaff 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14206
The drought of summer 2018, which affected much of Northern Europe, resulted in low river flows, biodiversity loss and threats to water supplies. In some regions, like the Scottish Highlands, the summer drought followed two consecutive, anomalously dry, winter periods. Here, we examine how the drought, and its antecedent conditions, affected soil moisture, groundwater storage, and low flows in the Bruntland Burn; a sub-catchment of the Girnock Burn long-term observatory in the Scottish Cairngorm Mountains. Fifty years of rainfall-runoff observations and long-term modelling studies in the Girnock provided unique contextualisation of this extreme event in relation to more usual summer storage dynamics. Whilst summer precipitation in 2018 was only 63% of the long-term mean, soil moisture storage across much of the catchment were less than half of their summer average and seasonal groundwater levels were 0.5 m lower than normal. Hydrometric and isotopic observations showed that ~100 mm of river flows during the summer (May-Sept) were sustained almost entirely by groundwater drainage, representing ~30% of evapotranspiration that occurred over the same period. A key reason that the summer drought was so severe was because the preceding two winters were also dry and failed to adequately replenish catchment soil moisture and groundwater stores. As a result, the drought had the biggest catchment storage deficits for over a decade, and likely since 1975–1976. Despite this, recovery was rapid in autumn/winter 2018, with soil and groundwater stores returning to normal winter values, along with stream flows. The study emphasizes how long-term data from experimental sites are key to understanding the non-linear flux-storage interactions in catchments and the “memory effects” that govern the evolution of, and recovery from, droughts. This is invaluable both in terms of (a) giving insights into hydrological behaviours that will become more common water resource management problems in the future under climate change and (b) providing extreme data to challenge hydrological models. 相似文献
4.
河湖水系连通是中国正在推进的重大治水战略,是提高国家水资源统筹调配能力、水生态环境修复能力和河湖健康保障能力的重大举措,也是提高水旱灾害抵御能力的重要保障。目前河湖水系连通的知识比较零散,尚未形成系统的理论体系,河湖水系连通理论基础的研究,对理论体系的构建、战略的实施和持续推进具有重要意义。本文基于河湖水系连通的理论研究的特征,提出其理论框架体系,分析了可持续发展、水利科学、经济学、生态学、系统科学等基础理论与河湖水系连通理论体系之间的内在关系。从当前国家实施河湖水系连通战略和构建河湖水系连通理论体系的迫切需求出发,本文提出了河湖水系连通理论研究的优先领域,包括河湖水系连通性与功能评价理论与方法、河湖水系连通水体耦合机制与系统稳定性理论、水系连通协调性理论、水系连通—经济格局匹配性理论、水系连通—生态环境影响机理与评估理论、水系连通巨系统不确定性与适应性理论等,优先突破重点领域理论研究,逐步形成和完善河湖水系连通理论体系,以科学、完整的理论体系支撑河湖水系连通治水战略高效、顺利实施。 相似文献
5.
利用ERA-Interim及雨量和土壤水分观测资料,对比诊断了2011年5—6月长江中下游梅汛前极旱期急转为梅汛期洪涝的极端天气事件的对流条件(水汽、不稳定、抬升作用)差异及特征,并研究条件性湿位涡垂直通量(CMF)指数与暴雨之间的定量关系。结果表明:在极旱期,干冷的东北气流控制,西太平洋副热带高压偏东,低层水汽通量弱且以偏北风输送为主,中低层为下沉气流,无低空急流,等θse线稀疏,边界层抬升机制缺乏,是干旱加剧的主要因子;在梅汛期,西南气流增强,西太平洋副热带高压西伸,低层气流在长江地区辐合,低层水汽通量增加且转为西南和东南风输送为主,伴随高低空急流耦合和深厚的上升运动,等θse线密集形成梅雨锋,增强不稳定暖湿空气强迫抬升和垂直输送,造成暴雨频发,引起区域性洪涝。暴雨中心600 hPa以下为负湿位涡的不稳定层,对流不稳定与条件性对称不稳定共同作用是强降水发生的不稳定机制。CMF指数与旱涝变化、暴雨过程演变非常一致,在极旱(梅汛)期,CMF指数低(高),变化平缓(剧烈),CMF指数在暴雨开始时逐步剧增,结束时迅速减小。 相似文献
6.
7.
蒙古国植被对干旱响应的敏感性研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文分析了蒙古国不同区域、不同土地覆被类型区的植被生长状况对干旱响应的敏感性特征,并探讨了成因。研究表明:① 2001—2019年,蒙古国虽然发生了3次较为严重的干旱事件,但整体上干旱程度呈轻微降低趋势,SPEI出现轻微上升,总体增速为0.001%/a;植被生长状况出现了好转,植被指数也呈上升趋势,总体增速为0.15%/a。② 蒙古国大部分区域植被生长受干旱影响较强,各植被指数与干旱指数呈较明显的正相关关系,在NDVI与SPEI-12的相关性分析中,正相关面积占比达76.36%;而在杭爱山脉和肯特山脉以北降水量丰沛的区域和阿尔泰山脉以南荒漠化严重和植被极为稀少区域,植被生长受干旱影响较弱,植被指数与SPEI相关性较小。③ 不同类型植被对干旱响应的敏感性也有差异,其中草地敏感性最强(0.22),而森林敏感性最弱(-0.04)。④ 干旱持续时间长短,对植被生长影响有较大差异,蒙古国大部分区域的植被对延续3个月至半年的干旱最为敏感,而年内以7月份干旱对植被影响最强。⑤ 植被对干旱响应的敏感性实质是区域水分平衡的植被影响,对同种植被而言多年平均气温越高或降水量越少,植被对干旱响应的敏感性越强,反之则越弱。本文的研究结果对蒙古国因地制宜开展荒漠化防治具有重要参考价值。 相似文献
8.
陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦产量对干旱胁迫响应的模拟研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
为进一步探明陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦产量形成对不同干旱胁迫的响应机制,依据甘肃省定西市安定区凤翔镇安家沟村2016—2018年大田控水试验数据以及定西市安定区1971—2018年气象数据,验证农业生产系统模拟(Agricultural production systems simulation,APSIM)模型模拟不同干旱胁迫旱地春小麦产量及产量构成要素的适宜性,基于APSIM模型分析不同生育期、不同程度干旱胁迫对旱地春小麦籽粒数、千粒重和产量的影响,利用多元逐步回归方程确定陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦最佳灌水时间和灌水量。结果表明:(1)APSIM模型模拟陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦生育期、籽粒数、千粒重和产量的均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE)均小于3.67 d、300.52个·m-2、2.56 g、267.43 kg·hm-2,归一化均方根误差(Normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)均小于3.89%、2.86%、9.71%、11.58%,模型有效性指数(Model effectiveness index,ME)均大于0.62、0.78、0.60、0.66,表明APSIM模型对模拟干旱胁迫条件下陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦产量形成具有较好的适应性。(2)不同生育期干旱胁迫下,拔节期干旱胁迫对小麦籽粒数影响最大,其次由大到小依次为出苗期、分蘖期、无胁迫、抽穗期、开花期和灌浆期;灌浆期干旱胁迫对小麦千粒重影响最大,其次由大到小依次为开花期、抽穗期、无胁迫、拔节期、出苗期和分蘖期;拔节期干旱胁迫对小麦产量影响最大,其次由大到小依次为灌浆期、抽穗期、开花期、出苗期、无胁迫和分蘖期。(3)不同程度干旱胁迫下,灌水量300.00 mm旱地春小麦产量最大为4866.19 kg·hm-2,与其他4种灌水相比产量分别增加283.53%、39.65%、0.46%和15.58%。(4)出苗后第1 d、47 d、60 d、82 d、86 d灌水,且灌水量达到343.09 mm时,旱地春小麦产量最大为5578.91 kg·hm-2。干旱胁迫发生时间和程度对研究区小麦产量形成具有明显的交互作用,分蘖期适度干旱胁迫有利于提高陇中黄土高原区旱地春小麦产量,而拔节期和灌浆期为旱地春小麦田间水分管理的关键生育期,小麦生长发育过程中应加强该生育期的水分管理以提高陇中黄土高原区粮食产量。 相似文献
9.
利用逐月降水数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,分析了洞庭湖流域春、夏、秋季57年来旱涝异常的年际变化以及典型旱涝异常年份的全球海温分布形势,并利用降尺度和趋势分析方法探究气象因子对ENSO和关键区海温的响应,以加强对流域旱涝前期影响因素的认识。结果表明:1)流域在春、秋季旱涝变化趋势不明显,在夏季较明显地变湿。2)前期冬、夏季ENSO事件分别对流域春、秋季旱涝产生显著影响,而与夏季呈不显著的统计特征。3)在消除前期ENSO信号后,阿留申群岛附近海域(S3)、澳大利亚东部海域(S4)海温和印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)现象仍分别为春、夏、秋季与流域旱涝有密切联系的海温因素。4)S3区SST对流域春季旱涝的影响通过西风带环流实现,S4区SST偏高似乎是东亚夏季风强度偏弱的表现,成熟的IOD现象为流域秋季旱涝的主导因子。 相似文献
10.
GUO Mengyao SHE Dunxian ZHANG Liping LI Lingcheng YANG Zong-Liang HONG Si 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(8):1123-1139
This study uses two forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI), namely the PDSI_TH(potential evapotranspiration estimated-by the Thornthwaite equation) and the PDSI_PM(potential evapotranspiration estimated by the FAO Penman-Monteith equation), to characterize the meteorological drought trends during 1960–2016 in the Loess Plateau(LP) and its four subregions. By designing a series of numerical experiments, we mainly investigated various climatic factors' contributions to the drought trends at annual, summer, and autumn time scales. Overall, the drying trend in the PDSI_TH is much larger than that in the PDSI_PM. The former is more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation, while the latter is the most sensitive to precipitation among all meteorological factors. Increasing temperature results in a decreasing trend(drying) in the PDSI_TH, which is further aggravated by decreasing precipitation, jointly leading to a relatively severe drying trend. For the PDSI_PM that considers more comprehensive climatic factors, the drying trend is partly counteracted by the declining wind speed and solar radiation. Therefore, the PDSI_PM ultimately shows a much smaller drying trend in the past decades. 相似文献