2016与1998年春季北大西洋海表温度异常的差异及成因     

薛文璟  余锦华  陈林 《热带海洋学报》2020,39(3):19-30

利用再分析资料以及混合层海温诊断方程, 研究1997—1998与2015—2016年超级厄尔尼诺次年北大西洋海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomalies, SSTA)的差异及成因。结果显示, 北大西洋SSTA在1998年春季呈明显正负正三极型式分布, 而在2016年呈弱的负正负型态。诊断热带北大西洋SSTA的影响因素表明, 1998年春季暖SSTA除了之前研究强调的海洋表面向大气的潜热输送异常减少, 以及吸收太阳辐射的增加外, 海洋动力过程即Ekman纬向漂流也起着重要的作用。热力过程与厄尔尼诺峰值后出现的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)负位相有关, 其可引起亚速尔高压减弱, 产生西南风异常, 通过风-蒸发-海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)反馈机制使热带北大西洋蒸发减弱, 海表增暖, 沃克环流下沉支的东移对这一增暖也有贡献。与1997—1998厄尔尼诺事件不同, 2015—2016厄尔尼诺事件没有强迫出负位相NAO, 而是出现弱NAO正位相, 热带北大西洋为弱的东风异常, 使海表发生一定的冷却, 形成2016春季北大西洋SSTA与1998年的明显差异。  相似文献   

两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水低频特征及低频水汽输送途径差异          下载免费PDF全文

李丽平  倪语蔓  杨春艳  马晨誉 《大气科学学报》2019,42(3):420-433

利用1961年1月—2014年12月Hadley气候预测研究中心的全球海表温度(SST)资料,NECP/NCAR逐日风场、比湿等再分析资料,国家气象信息中心提供的中国753站逐日降水、160站逐月降水资料,对比分析了东部(EP)型和中部(CP)型两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水(简记为EP型和CP型降水)低频特征,以及与之相关的低频水汽输送差异。结果表明,1)平均而言,EP型降水主要有10～20 d(最显著)以及20～30 d(次显著)低频周期;CP型降水主要有10～20 d的低频显著周期。与之相关的纬、经向水汽通量最显著低频周期也为10～20 d。2)影响EP、CP型低频降水共同的低频水汽环流系统主要有:菲律宾群岛附近的异常反气旋式水汽环流和渤海湾附近(日本东南侧)的异常气旋式(反气旋式)水汽环流。另外,影响EP(CP)型低频降水的还有来自巴尔喀什湖东北部异常气旋式水汽环流(孟加拉湾、苏门答腊岛以西的异常气旋式水汽环流对和贝加尔湖西、东两侧的异常气旋式、反气旋式环流)。3)EP型降水暖湿水汽主要源自南海,冷湿水汽主要源自西北太平洋,冷空气来自巴尔喀什湖东北部和贝加尔湖西北侧。CP型降水暖湿水汽少量来自阿拉伯海和印度洋,大量来自热带西太平洋,冷空气主要来自贝加尔湖西北侧。  相似文献   

Old Chico’s new tricks: Neoliberalization and water sector reform in Brazil’s São Francisco River Basin     

《Geoforum》2015

This article examines changing water governance modalities in the context of the neoliberalization of nature. Specifically, it focuses on Brazilian water sector reforms passed in 1997 that mandate decentralized and participatory decision-making at the river basin scale. Critics have suggested that rescaling, decentralization, and participatory governance mechanisms – supposedly intended to render decision-making more equitable, accessible, and relevant – can serve to legitimate, facilitate, and thus further embed processes of neoliberalization. Examining the impact of Brazil’s water sector reforms on the state–society relationship, this article presents a case study of water governance in the São Francisco River Basin and finds that the reforms – despite their neoliberalizing potential – have not significantly contributed to the neoliberalization of governance therein. Instead, water governance continues to be characterized by longstanding patterns of traditional elite control. Through an institutional and socio-natural analysis, this article describes and accounts for the continued dominance of these patterns relative to neoliberalization and explores activists’ efforts to use water sector reforms to pursue more progressive possibilities. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications for variegation and contestation in ongoing debates over neoliberal natures.  相似文献   

IMPACT OF LATENT HEAT FLUX ON INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON DURING EL NI(N)O/LA NI(N)A YEARS     

M. V. Subrahmanyam  WANG Dong-xiao 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(4)

El Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a manifest in December over the Pacific and will serve as an index for the forecasting of subsequent Indian summer monsoon,which occurs from June to mid-September.In the present article,an attempt is made to study the variation of latent heat flux (LHF) over the north Indian Ocean during strong El Ni(n)o and strong La Ni(n)a and relate it with Indian monsoon rainfall.During strong El Ni(n)o the LHF intensity is higher and associated with higher wind speed and lower cloud amount.During E1 Ni(n)o all India rainfall is having an inverse relation with LHF.Seasonal rainfall is higher in YY+1 (subsequent year) than YY (year of occurrence).However there is a lag in rainfall during El Ni(n)o YY+1 from June to July when compared with the monthly rainfall.  相似文献   

海洋初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用     

郑飞  王慧  万丽颖 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(12):72-79

2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。  相似文献   

深海内波空间啁啾的演变研究     

孙美玲  王晶  郭凯  张旭东  孟俊敏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,45(1):114-120

根据基于两层流体推导的深海内波弱非线性薛定谔(Nonlinear Schrodinger,简称NLS)方程,引进空间啁啾的思想,研究深海区频散效应和非线性效应的作用。文中推导出了频散效应和非线性效应所致啁啾的表达式,采用数值计算方法计算了综合效应产生的总啁啾。分析了频散和非线性以及综合效应所致啁啾在深海内波传播中的演变规律。从空间啁啾的角度,解释中国南海东沙群岛附近深海区内波演变的机理。  相似文献   

Paleoproterozoic juvenile magmatism within the northeastern sector of the São Francisco paleocontinent: Insights from the shoshonitic high Ba–Sr Montezuma granitoids     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(5):1821-1840

New,integrated petrographic,mineral chemistry,whole rock geochemical,zircon and titanite UPb geochronology,and zircon Hf isotopic data from the Montezuma granitoids,as well as new geochemical results for its host rocks represented by the Corrego Tingui Complex,provides new insights into the late-to post-collisional evolution of the northeastern Sao Francisco paleocontinent.U-Pb zircon dates from the Montezuma granitoids spread along the Concordia between ca.2.2 Ga to 1.8 Ga and comprise distinct groups.Group I have crystallization ages between ca.2.15 Ga and 2.05 Ga and are interpreted as inherited grains.Group II zircon dates vary from 2.04 Ga to1.9 Ga and corresponds to the crystallization of the Montezuma granitoids,which were constrained at ca.2.03 Ga by the titanite U-Pb age.Inverse age zoning is common within the ca.1.8 Ga Group III zircon ages,being related to fluid isotopic re-setting during the Espinhaco rifiting event.Zircon ε_(Hf)(t) analysis show dominantly positive values for both Group I(-4 to+9) and Ⅱ(-3 to+8) zircons and T_(DM2) model ages of 2.7-2.1 Ga and 2.5-1.95 Ga,respectively.Geochemically,the Montezuma granitoids are weakly peraluminous to metaluminous magnesian granitoids,enriched in LILES and LREE,with high to moderate Mg#and depleted in some of the HFSE.Their lithochemical signature,added to the juvenile signature of both inherited and crystallized zircons,allowed its classification as a shoshonitic high Ba-Sr granitoid related to a late-to post-collisional lithosphere delamination followed by asthenospheric upwelling.In this scenario,the partial melting of the lithospheric mantle interacted with the roots of an accreted juvenile intra-oceanic arc,being these hybrid magma interpreted as the source of the Montezuma granitoids.The Corrego Tingui Complex host rocks are akin to a syn-to late-collisional volcanic arc granitoids originated from the partial melting of ancient crustal rocks.The results presented in this study have revealed the occurrence of juvenile rocks,probably related to an island arc environment,that are exotic in relation to the Paleo-to Neoarchean crust from the Sao Francisco paleocontinent's core.  相似文献   

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability     

FRANCIS H. S. CHIEW  THOMAS A. McMAHON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):505-522

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.  相似文献   

Connections Between Different Types of El Ni~no and Southern/Northern Oscillation          下载免费PDF全文

PENG Jingbei  ZHANG Qingyun  CHEN Lieting 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(4):506-516

It has long been acknowledged that there are two types of El Ni(n)o events,i.e.,the eastern Pacific El Ni(n)o (EE) and the central Pacific El Ni(n)o (CE),according to the initial position of the anomalous warm water and its propagation direction.In this paper,the oceanic and atmospheric evolutions and the possible mechanisms of the two types of El Ni(n)o events were examined.It is found that all the El Ni(n)o events,CE or EE,could be attributed to the joint impacts of the eastward advection of warm water from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Before the occurrence of CE events,WPWP had long been in a state of being anomalous warm,so the strength of eastward advection of warm water was much stronger than that of EE,which played a major role in the formation of CE.While for the EE events,most contribution came from the local warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific.It is further identified that the immediate cause leading to the difference of the two types of El Ni(n)o events was the asynchronous variations of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Northern Oscillation (NO) as defined by Chen in 1984.When the transition from the positive phase of the NO (NO+) to NO- was prior to that from SO+ to SO-,there would be eastward propagation of westerly anomalies from the tropical western Pacific induced by NO and hence the growth of warm sea surface temperature anomalies in WPWP and its eastward propagation.This was followed by lagged SO-induced weakening of southeast trade winds and local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.These were conducive to the occurrence of the CE.On the contrary,the transition from SO+ to SO- leading the transition of NO would favor the occurrence of EE type events.  相似文献   

What Drives the Decadal Variability of Global Tropical Storm Days from 1965 to 2019?     

Yifei DAI  Bin WANG  Weiyi SUN 《大气科学进展》2022,39(2):344-353

The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan.It reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially globally.Here we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual(3-6 years)and decadal(10 years)variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant trend.The leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic,but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean.The interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period,but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980 s.We find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific(PDO-E),while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific(PDO-W).However,the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980 s,and this"destructive PDO"pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO relationship.The results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.  相似文献