原子钟噪声的蒙特卡络模拟方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙宏伟 《时间频率学报》1996,19(1):33-37

讨论了原子钟噪声的蒙特卡络模拟方法．具体过程是：先产生模拟所需的正态分布随机数，从实际钟的阿仑方差估算出噪声电平，然后用１组递点函数产生高质量的模拟钟时差的随机序列．在对１台商品铯钟进行具体模拟后，给出了真实数据与模拟值的阿仑方差之问的相符程度，最后对实际问题进行了分析．  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

S.K. Palei  S.K. Das 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2008,75(4):241-247

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.  相似文献   

Delineation of groundwater protection zones by the backward particle tracking method: theoretical background and GIS-based stochastic analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Konstadinos N. Moutsopoulos  Alexandra Gemitzi  Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(5):1081-1090

The backward particle tracking method, an effective and powerful tool that can be used to delineate groundwater protection zones, is presented. The theoretical background and insights on the applicability of this method are provided. Moreover, the present work enriches the backward particle tracking method with an uncertainty analysis concerning the porosity values, applying a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, coupled with the use of geographical information systems (GIS). As an application example, a wellfield in the Komotini area, Greece, is investigated. The present study may serve as a potential guideline for wellfield delineation, particularly in areas like Greece where lack of data related to the hydrogeological system is often a problem.  相似文献   

蒙特卡罗法在天然气水合物资源量计算中的应用     

曾繁彩  吴琳  张光学  梁金强  王宏斌 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2006,26(5):139-144

天然气水合物甲烷资源量的估算是天然气水合物研究中的热点问题。运用体积法计算含水合物沉积物中的甲烷资源量时,存在参数赋值不确定的问题,从而影响了计算结果的可信度。采用蒙特卡罗法,通过计算样本的频率可以较好地评价和描述计算结果的信度,弥补体积法的不足。对采用蒙特卡罗法估算甲烷资源量的原理进行了分析和探讨,并以麦肯齐三角洲和南海海域水合物为例,计算了水合物赋存区的甲烷资源量。  相似文献   

超声回弹综合法检测单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周启国  张亦飞  韩勤  曹玉泉 《海洋学研究》2006,24(1):97-102

在实际工程检测数据的基础上,利用M on te C arlo试验对单一构件混凝土强度推定值的保证率问题进行了分析。30片梁板实测数据分析结果表明:将构件各测区混凝土强度换算值的最小值作为该构件的混凝土强度推定值的保证率范围为79.0%~94.2%,小于《超声回弹综合法检测混凝土强度技术规程》(CECS 02:88)规定的95%保证率要求,因此,对结构性能鉴定而言该混凝土强度推定值是偏于不安全的,应引起试验检测人员的充分重视。  相似文献   

随机激励下非线性海洋结构物响应分析方法研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王迎光  谭家华 《海洋工程》2007,25(4):112-119

对在随机载荷作用下非线性海洋结构物的运动响应分析的各种方法进行了综述,对有些方法的基本原理做了阐述,并指出一些最新的研究进展和今后进一步研究的方向。  相似文献   

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations     

Huabin Wang  Gonghui Wang  Fawu Wang  Kyoji Sassa  Yuping Chen 《Landslides》2008,5(4):387-395

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.  相似文献   

顾及DEM误差自相关的坡度计算模型精度分析   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10  

刘学军  卞璐  卢华兴  朱莹 《测绘学报》2008,37(2):0-249

基于DEM的坡度计算,其误差来源于DEM误差、DEM结构和坡度计算模型。在顾及DEM误差自相关的前提下,对四种DEM坡度计算模型进行了分析和评价。研究表明,三阶不带权差分能给出较高的坡度计算精度;在局部窗口中,格网点数量越多,坡度计算越准确;等权比不等权的坡度计算模型更准确;DEM误差自相关结构形式对坡度计算无影响。进一步的理论分析和试验分析还表明：DEM误差自相关性的存在,不仅能够改善地形分析的精度,也能改善DEM自身精度。  相似文献   

Information structure analysis for quantitative assessment of mineral resources and the discovery of a silver deposit     

Wang  Yutian  Tan  Bingqi  Wang  Yifeng  Wu  Jiangtao 《Natural Resources Research》1994,3(4):284-294

We propose an information-structure-analysis (ISA) method to quantify the correlations between quantitative and qualitative variables as well as within each type of variable. This method is applied to the evaluation of mineral resources in the western Zheijiang Province of China. The district contains a number of silver-bearing Fe–Cu–Pb–Zn mineral deposits near igneous complexes and FeCuPbZn zones away from the complexes. Silver anomalies occur not only in the known Fe–Cu–Zn–Pb deposits, but also in the country rock, suggesting the possible existence of silver deposits far from the igneous complexes.The tonnage distribution of silver is modeled by Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation is conducted on the basis of the correlations between silver (Ag) and lead (Pb), since no known data on silver is available. The known tonnage distribution of lead in 11 control cells was used to approximate the tonnage distribution of silver in the Monte Carlo simulation. With ISA and Monte Carlo methods, the total amount of potential polymetallic resources in 49 cells in the western Zhejiang Provice is predicted. Significantly, a deposit with about 24 tonnes of silver has been found within our exploration target area.  相似文献   

Efficient generation of conditional simulations by chebyshev matrix polynomial approximations to the symmetric square root of the covariance matrix     

C. R. Dietrich  G. N. Newsam 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(2):207-228

Consider the problem of generating a realization y₁ of a Gaussian random field on a dense grid of points ₁ conditioned on field observations y₂ collected on a sparse grid of points ₂. An approach to this is to generate first an unconditional realization y over the grid =_{1 2}, and then to produce y₁ by conditioning y on the data y₂. As standard methods for generating y, such as the turning bands, spectral or Cholesky approaches can have various limitations, it has been proposed by M. W. Davis to generate realizations from a matrix polynomial approximations to the square root of the covariance matrix. In this paper we describe how to generate a direct approximation to the conditional realization y₁, on ₁ using a variant of Davis' approach based on approximation by Chebyshev polynomials. The resulting algorithm is simple to implement, numerically stable, and bounds on the approximation error are readily available. Furthermore we show that the conditional realization y₁ can be generated directly with a lower order polynomial than the unconditional realization y, and that further reductions can be achieved by exploiting a nugget effect if one is present. A pseudocode version of the algorithm is provided that can be implemented using the fast Fourier transform if the field is stationary and the grid ₁ is rectangular. Finally, numerical illustrations are given of the algorithm's performance in generating various 2-D realizations of conditional processes on large sampling grids.  相似文献