我国青藏块体地区未来几年地震危险性分析     

陈荣华  李志海 《内陆地震》2011,25(1):6-11

研究了我国青藏块体地区每一地震活跃幕里地震活动的主体地区、地震活动强度和地震活动持续时间,认为2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的发生可能意味着我国青藏块体自1995年或1997年开始的地震活跃幕已经进入后期,同时也意味着这一地区自1920年以来更长时间尺度里的地震活动期也进入了收尾阶段.未来几年青藏块体地震活动水平为7级...  相似文献   

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake     

Hernando Tavera  Isabel Bernal  Fleur O. Strasser  Maria C. Arango-Gaviria  John E. Alarcón  Julian J. Bommer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):71-111

A M_w 7.9 earthquake event occurred on 15 August 2007 off the coast of central Peru, 60 km west of the city of Pisco. This event is associated with subduction processes at the interface of the Nazca and South American plates, and was characterised by a complex source mechanism involving rupture on two main asperities, with unilateral rupture propagation to the southeast. The rupture process is clearly reflected in the ground motions recorded during this event, which include two separate episodes of strong shaking. The event triggered 18 accelerographic stations; the recordings are examined in terms of their characteristics and compared to the predictions of ground-motion prediction equations for subduction environments, using the maximum-likelihood-based method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). Additionally, macroseismic observations and damage patterns are examined and discussed in the light of local construction practices, drawing on field observations gathered during the post-earthquake reconnaissance missions.  相似文献   

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change     

《Advances in water resources》2015

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.  相似文献   

西秦岭温泉钼矿床成矿作用时限及其对斑岩型钼矿床系统分类制约   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

邱昆峰  李楠  RyanDTAYLOR  宋耀辉  宋开瑞  韩旺珍  张东旭 《岩石学报》2014,30(9):2631-2643

斑岩系统是一个涉及岩浆和热液作用的复杂系统,建立精细的斑岩系统成因模型对于寻找更为丰富的金属矿产尤为重要,成矿作用时限是建立成因模型和指导矿产勘查的关键。温泉钼矿床是西秦岭造山带内与晚三叠世花岗岩有关的斑岩型钼矿床,其在西秦岭造山带的独特发育蕴含印支期斑岩成矿作用、大陆地壳演化及矿产勘查关键科学问题。钼矿体主要赋存于温泉复式岩体Ⅱ单元和Ⅲ单元的黑云母二长花岗斑岩和似斑状二长花岗岩中,钼以细脉和浸染状矿化形式产出。赋矿岩石单元锆石U-Pb年龄为224.6±2.5Ma到216.2±1.7Ma,Ⅱ和Ⅲ单元分别侵位于~223Ma和~217Ma,持续约8Myr。辉钼矿Re-Os年龄为212.7±2.6Ma到215.1±2.6Ma,暗示晚三叠世钼成矿作用与花岗质岩浆作用密切时空关系,且成矿年龄稍晚,反映钼矿化主要发生在岩浆作用晚期阶段。成岩、成矿作用发生于华北板块与华南板块全面对接后秦岭造山带构造体制由碰撞到后碰撞的转折阶段,响应南秦岭变质变形、勉-略洋盆闭合及大别-苏鲁超高压岩石板片折返统一地质事件。黑云母K-Ar年龄为207~226Ma,可能反映~223Ma和~208Ma的岩体冷却事件和~216Ma的岩浆-热液成矿作用。锆石U-Pb、辉钼矿Re-Os和黑云母K-Ar多元同位素定年系统准确刻画岩体侵位、热液成矿与冷却事件上有所重叠,岩浆-热液分异演化充分,且具有较高的冷却速率,精确厘定温泉斑岩系统岩浆活动的"多期性"(复式岩体)、成矿事件的"瞬时性"(~214Ma)和成矿作用的"持续性"(~8Myr)。同时,系统对比全球典型斑岩钼(铜)矿床成矿动力学背景,细化分类方案,即产于挤压背景的大洋俯冲和大陆碰撞环境矿床及产于伸展背景的后碰撞、陆缘弧后和板内裂谷环境矿床。明确在大洋俯冲→大陆碰撞→后碰撞→板内裂谷旋回的四个阶段均可以产生规模的斑岩型钼(铜)矿床,且挤压向伸展过渡的构造体制转换尤其是大型矿床形成的有利环境。  相似文献   

鲁中地区近35年不同历时降水变化特征     

环海军  刘岩  夏福华 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2018,12(5):83-89

利用鲁中地区8个气象站1980-2014年逐日降水资料,分析不同持续时间不同强度降水的时空变化规律。结果表明：鲁中地区近35年无特大暴雨发生,降水发生频率随降水强度和持续时间的增加而减少,降水频率与降水强度的变化规律基本一致。1日降水除小雨外,其他强度降水发生次数均呈增加趋势,最多发生在7月,大暴雨的降水强度除沂源外,其他地区呈增加趋势,暴雨降水强度在中部平原和南部山区呈增加趋势,除大暴雨外,其他不同强度降水年均发生次数主要空间变化规律一致,但在第二特征向量上存在差异;持续2日降水除暴雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势外,其他强度降水均呈减少趋势,暴雨的降水强度除中西部平原外,其他地区呈增加趋势,大雨和小雨最多出现在8月,暴雨和中雨出现在7月,暴雨中北部平原最多,大雨东部平原最多,中雨、小雨山区最多;持续3日中雨和小雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈增加趋势,最多出现在8月,山区最多;持续4日、5日小雨年均发生次数随时间呈减少趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈减少趋势,最多分别出现在8月、9月,空间分布均匀。  相似文献   

武汉天河机场低能见度现象的气候特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

胡迪 《山西气象》2006,19(3):18-20

用5年滑动平均方法并用最小二乘法建立方程式,计算太阳辐射气候倾向率及日照气候倾向反映太阳辐射的45a变化趋势,用小波分析方法分析太阳总辐射的周期变化规律。结果表明,太原地区的年日照时数减少,年总辐射量呈显著减少趋势,有11a的周期变化,在1981年左右有突变。初步统计能见度低于10km次数在逐年增多。  相似文献   

强余震持续时间的早期估计   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周翠英  张宇霞 《中国地震》1997,13(2):164-171

本研究旨在解决地震序列中强余震持续时间的早期估计问题。文中首先给出了强余震的震级定义，指出：主震型与强震群型序列的强作震持续时间存在差异。使用模式识别方法对主震型序列中强余震持续时间大于１天，小于１天及无强余震等３种情况进行划分之后，给出了两类序列的强余震持续时间与序列和第一震震级的粗略相关关系。  相似文献   

利用深井地震速度记录确定震级的初步研究     

李慧民  朱元清  章纯 《地震地磁观测与研究》1992,(5)

利用上海遥测地震台网虹桥、南汇台深井地震速度记录资料讨论地震尾波衰减与震级关系.采用统计方法求得了用垂直向地震波持续时间 L 测定震级M_v 的公式M_v 虹桥=-0.981+1.677×log(L)+0.600×log(△)±0.22M_v 南汇=-1.461+1.979×log(L)+0.506×log(△)±0.22结果表明,地震速度记录的持续时间 L 的对数加上震中距(△,单位:km)的对数与震级在近震范围内(△<5°)呈线性关系,说明用地震速度记录同样可以测定地震震级,这有助于提高深井速度记录资料的推广和应用。  相似文献   

计算机辅助绘制流域等流时线   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

王腊春  陈晓玲 《地理科学》1996,16(2):184-190

采用地理信息系统方法，对流域的地形地貌特征进行分析，模拟水质点在流域上的运动轨迹，并根据水质点汇流时间与汇流路径，坡度，坡长的关系，建立了流域汇流等流时线模型，经实例验证，效果较好。  相似文献   

Replacing carbon lost from forests: an assessment of insurance, reserves, and expiring credits     

Susan Subak 《Climate Policy》2003,3(2):107-122

Concern over the “non-permanence” or reversibility of carbon sequestration projects has been prominent in discussions over how to develop guidelines for forest project investments under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol. Accordingly, a number of approaches have been proposed that aim to help ensure that parties do not receive credit for carbon that is lost before project obligations are fulfilled. These approaches include forest carbon insurance, land reserves, and issuance of expiring credits. The potential costs of each of these different approaches are evaluated using a range of assumptions about project length, risk and discount rate, and a comparison of costs is ventured based on the estimated reduction in value of these credits compared with uninsured, and permanent credits. Obstacles to participation in the different approaches are discussed related to problems of long-term commitments, project scale, rising replacement costs, and low credit value. It is concluded that a system of expiring credits, which could be coupled with insurance or reserves, could guarantee obligations that span time-scales longer than that of conventional insurance policies while maintaining incentives for long-term sequestration.  相似文献