排序方式： 共有19条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
平流层温度调整后的辐射强迫的简化计算 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
采用石广玉[1] 一维辐射对流模式对温室气体浓度变化引起的平流层温度调整后的辐射强迫(ARF)进行了计算。参考文献 [1]的瞬时辐射强迫 (IRF)计算的简化公式的形式 ,将ARF的计算结果表示成简单的经验公式。与使用一维辐射对流模式计算得出的ARF结果的比较表明 ,简化计算公式可以达到很高的精度。 相似文献
2.
Amadou Angelina Abdouramane Gado Djibo Ibrah Seidou Sanda Ketvara Sittichok 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1709-1723
AbstractA significant decrease in mean river flow as well as shifts in flood regimes have been reported at several locations along the River Niger. These changes are the combined effect of persistent droughts, damming and increased consumption of water. Moreover, it is believed that climate change will impact on the hydrological regime of the river in the next decades and exacerbate existing problems. While decision makers and stakeholders are aware of these issues, it is hard for them to figure out what actions should be taken without a quantitative estimate of future changes. In this paper, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of the Niger River watershed at Koulikoro was successfully calibrated, then forced with the climate time series of variable length generated by nine regional climate models (RCMs) from the AMMA-ENSEMBLES experiment. The RCMs were run under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. A combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest-neighbour search was used to correct biases in the distributions of RCM outputs. Streamflow time series were generated for the 2026–2050 period (all nine RCMs), and for the 2051–2075 and 2076–2100 periods (three out of nine RCMs) based on the availability of RCM simulations. It was found that the quantile-quantile transformation improved the simulation of both precipitation extremes and ratio of monthly dry days/wet days. All RCMs predicted an increase in temperature and solar radiation, and a decrease in average annual relative humidity in all three future periods relative to the 1981–1989 period, but there was no consensus among them about the direction of change of annual average wind speed, precipitation and streamflow. When all model projections were averaged, mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease, while the total precipitation in the flood season (August, September, October) increased, driving the mean annual flow up by 6.9% (2026–2050), 0.9% (2051–2075) and 5.6% (2076–2100). A t-test showed that changes in multi-model annual mean flow and annual maximum monthly flow between all four periods were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. 相似文献
3.
Angelo Forestieri Elisa Arnone Stephen Blenkinsop Angela Candela Hayley Fowler Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(3):332-348
Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events. 相似文献
4.
王金岭 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(2)
本文利用法方程系数阵的稀疏性,将Banker算法和RCM算法应用于平面控制网数据处理,实现网点自动优化排序,压缩了法方程系数阵的存贮空间。借助于各类平面网平差模型对Banker 算法和RCM算法进行了比较、分析。采用优化排序算法不仅能扩大微机的解算容量,同时也提高了解算速度,减少了计算过程中的舍入误差,且适用于任意平面网、高程网,GPS网的自动化数据处理。 相似文献
5.
Projected 21st century climate change on snow conditions over Shasta Dam watershed by means of dynamical downscaling 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Snow is an important component of the Earth's climate system and is particularly vulnerable to global warming. It has been suggested that warmer temperatures may cause significant declines in snow water content and snow cover duration. In this study, snowfall and snowmelt were projected by means of a regional climate model that was coupled to a physically based snow model over Shasta Dam watershed to assess changes in snow water content and snow cover duration during the 21st century. This physically based snow model requires both physical data and future climate projections. These physical data include topography, soils, vegetation, and land use/land cover, which were collected from associated organizations. The future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the regional climate model under 4 emission scenarios simulated by 2 general circulation models (fifth‐generation of the ECHAM general circulation model and the third‐generation atmospheric general circulation model). The downscaled future projections were bias corrected before projecting snowfall and snowmelt processes over Shasta Dam watershed during 2010–2099. This study's results agree with those of previous studies that projected snow water equivalent is decreasing by 50–80% whereas the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall is decreasing by 15% to 20%. The obtained projection results show that future snow water content will change in both time and space. Furthermore, the results confirm that physical data such as topography, land cover, and atmospheric–hydrologic data are instrumental in the studies on the impact of climate change on the water resources of a region. 相似文献
6.
This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes(CPSs) in the Regional Climate Model(version 4.3)(Reg CM4.3) over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean(ELGO) scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS(Grell/Emanuel) over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain(3H) and Tibetan Plateau(TP) regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan(NP). In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias. 相似文献
7.
A.V. Karmalkar M.A. Taylor J. Campbell T. Stephenson M. New A. Centella A. Benzanilla J. Charlery 《Atmósfera》2013,26(2):283-309
Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean. 相似文献
8.
Lara M. Kueppers Mark A. Snyder Lisa C. Sloan Dan Cayan Jiming Jin Hideki Kanamaru Masao Kanamitsu Norman L. Miller Mary Tyree Hui Du Bryan Weare 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):250-264
In the western United States, more than 79 000 km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest. 相似文献
9.
谱逼近方法在东亚夏季降水区域模式模拟中的适用性研究:区域大小和位置的影响 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
利用区域气候模式 MM5V3 对1991、1998和2003年的东亚夏季降水进行了模拟.首先通过6个嵌套区域大小、位置的敏感性试验,研究了区域气候模式在东亚地区的模拟对嵌套区域的敏感性.在此基础上研究了谱逼近方案对降低此敏感性的作用.结果表明:(1)区域气候模式MM5V3能够基本模拟出东亚夏季极端降水的分布特征和强度变... 相似文献
10.
Impacts of Spectral Nudging on the Sensitivity of a Regional Climate Model to Convective Parameterizations in East Asia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The sensitivity of a regional climate model (RCM) to cumulus parameterization (CUPA) schemes in modeling summer precipitation
over East Asia has been investigated by using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric
Research Mesoscale Model (PSU-NCAR MM5). The feasibility of physical ensemble and the effect of interior (spectral) nudging
are also assessed. The RCM simulations are evaluated against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and NCEP/CPC precipitation data
for three summers (JJA) in 1991, 1998, and 2003. The results show that the RCM is highly sensitive to CUPA schemes. Different
CUPA schemes cause distinctive characteristics in the modeling of JJA precipitation and the intraseasonal (daily) variability
of regional precipitation. The sensitivity of the RCM simulations to the CUPA schemes is reduced by adopting the spectral
nudging technique, which enables the RCM to reproduce more realistic large-scale circulations at the upper levels of the atmosphere
as well as near the surface, and better precipitation simulation in the selected experiments. The ensemble simulations using
different CUPA schemes show higher skills than individual members for both control runs and spectral nudging runs. The physical
ensemble adopting the spectral nudging technique shows the highest downscaling skill in capturing the general circulation
patterns for all experiments and improved temporal distributions of precipitation in some regions. 相似文献