A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model for multi-decadal groundwater dynamics predictions     

Fatih Gordu  Mahmood H. Nachabe 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14308

A physically constrained wavelet-aided statistical model (PCWASM) is presented to analyse and predict monthly groundwater dynamics on multi-decadal or longer time scales. The approach retains the simplicity of regression modelling but is constrained by temporal scales of processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including aquifer recharge and pumping. The methodology integrates statistical correlations enhanced with wavelet analysis into established principles of groundwater hydraulics including convolution, superposition and the Cooper–Jacob solution. The systematic approach includes (1) identification of hydrologic trends and correlations using cross-correlation and multi-time scale wavelet analyses; (2) integrating temperature-based evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping stresses and (3) assessing model prediction performances using fixed-block k-fold cross-validation and split calibration-validation methods. The approach is applied at three hydrogeologicaly distinct sites in North Florida in the United States using over 40 years of monthly groundwater levels. The systematic approach identifies two patterns of cross-correlations between groundwater levels and historical rainfall, indicating low-frequency variabilities are critical for long-term predictions. The models performed well for predicting monthly groundwater levels from 7 to 22 years with less than 2.1 ft (0.7 m) errors. Further evaluation by the moving-block bootstrap regression indicates the PCWASM can be a reliable tool for long-term groundwater level predictions. This study provides a parsimonious approach to predict multi-decadal groundwater dynamics with the ability to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. The PCWASM is computationally efficient and can be implemented using publicly available datasets. Thus, it should provide a versatile tool for managers and researchers for predicting multi-decadal monthly groundwater levels under changing climatic and pumping impacts over a long time period.  相似文献   

Updates to the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model     

Danielle E. Moser  William J. Cooke 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):285-291

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Meteoroid Stream Model simulates particle ejection and subsequent evolution from comets in order to provide meteor shower forecasts to spacecraft operators for hazard mitigation and planning purposes. The model, previously detailed in Moser and Cooke (Earth Moon Planets 95, 141 (2004)), has recently been updated; the changes include the implementation of the RADAU integrator, an improved planetary treatment, and the inclusion of general relativistic effects in the force function. The results of these updates are investigated with respect to various meteoroid streams and the outcome presented.  相似文献   

太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王家龙 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1999,(4)

回顾产生太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报,讨论短期预报在近期应做的研究．给出以下结论：（１）在６０年代和７０年代,质子事件耀斑的预报有相当大的进展;（２）新预报方法的探索和质子流在日冕与行星际的传播问题,是当前改进短期预报的关键;（３）对实际应用的短期预报工作的改进,可能需要从空间天气预报的角度,研究太阳活动区的分类．  相似文献   

Stock assessment and biological knowledge: can prediction uncertainty be reduced?   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ulltang  Oyvind 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1996,53(4):659-675

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人工神经网络在桩基工程中的应用综述   总被引：15，自引：3，他引：15  

王成华  张薇 《岩土力学》2002,23(2):173-178

对人工神经网络在桩基工程中的应用研究工作进行了回顾与评述。总结了神经网络在单桩承载力、荷载－位移关系预测以及基桩动测完整性判释等方面的技术成果与水平，并分析和探讨了进一步的研究方向和应用前景。  相似文献   

断裂构造频率图与金矿分布的关系：以美国内华达州为例     

徐增亮  彭人勇 《华东地质学院学报》1989,12(2):1-7

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Intercomparison of NO column measurements during MAP/GLOBUS 1985     

R. L. McKenzie  W. A. Matthews  Y. Kondo  R. Zander  Ph. Demoulin  P. Fabian  D. G. Murcray  F. J. Murcray  O. Lado-Bordowsky  C. Camy-Peyret  H. K. Roscoe  J. A. Pyle  R. D. McPeters 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,7(4):353-367

Column measurements of nitric oxide were made using several techniques during the MAP/GLOBUS campaign in France in September 1985. The data sets are nearly co-located and simultaneous, therefore allowing a valid intercomparison of the various measurement methods. The range of altitudes sampled differs from instrument to instrument. This complicates the comparison because the data sets are to some extent complementary. The NO distributions apparently vary significantly from day to day, and possibly over shorter timescales. Changes in dynamics may be responsible for these variations. The results from the instruments which measure in the infrared and the ultraviolet are self-consistent, and show good agreement with photochemical predictions. On 19 September, when the intercomparison was made, the profile measured by the in-situ chemiluminescent instrument differed significantly from the predicted profile, and the measured columns were generally higher.  相似文献   

矿山淹井中水位、水量的快速估算和预报     

尹春芳 《华东地质学院学报》1988,(3)

本文用数理统计方法,快速估算和预报矿山淹井中水住、最高水位,矿井水涌量、涌入矿区的总水量和需要排出水量。用简单易行的反推法确定淹井的涌水量,并推导出计算式,以供使用。该方法在某矿淹井中使用,效果良好。  相似文献   

Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality     

J. Zahradník  P. Moczo  F. Hron 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(1-2):149-170

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.  相似文献   

Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California     

J. Zahradník  J. Jech  V. Barták 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,137(1-2):63-84

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.  相似文献