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1.
The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides
were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope
instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate
Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical
attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical
parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related
inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means
and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm
as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic
landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level. 相似文献
2.
Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance. 相似文献
3.
应用地震危险性分析理论和地震动人工合成技术，给出Newmark法中所需的地震动时程，解决了斜坡稳定性分析Newmark法中难以选取合适地震动时程的难题。通过对黄土斜坡实例计算，给出了坡体中地震动峰值加速度与深度的关系；在计算坡体位移时，提出了等效峰值加速度的概念；对比了使用地面地震动时程和使用坡体内等效地震动时程的计算结果。 相似文献
4.
地震动作用下滑坡稳定性分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
李忠生 《水文地质工程地质》2004,31(2):4-8
应用地震危险性分析理论和地震动人工合成技术,给出Newmark法中所需的地震动时程。通过滑坡实例计算,得出了坡体中地震动峰值加速度与深度存在负指数关系;坡体对地震动放大倍数与坡体厚度近似呈线性关系。通过对Ne wmark法中不同地震动时程作用位置的计算对比,发现使用地面地震动时程得到的结果虽有些偏于安全,但基本是合理的。 相似文献
5.
中国是世界上地震滑坡灾害最为严重的国家之一。考虑地质构造、地形地貌、地层岩性、河流、地震动参数等6类影响因素,针对50年超越概率10%的抗震设防水准,分别开展了基于信息量模型和Newmark模型的地震滑坡危险性评估。基于最不利原则对两项结果进行地震滑坡危险性综合分区,揭示了中国地震滑坡高危险区集中在南北构造带、青藏高原周缘、鄂尔多斯周缘、天山山脉、台湾山脉等5个活动地块边界或地貌过渡带的空间分布特征。通过地震滑坡危险对主要山区城市的影响分析,显示:34个省级行政单元中的云南、四川、甘肃、台湾4省区受影响严重;370个主要城市中的48个城市受影响严重,其中44个城市有活动断裂穿越;9类主体功能规划区中,国家和省级优化开发区域总体较适于城市开发建设;25个经济区与城市群中,总体较适于开发建设,但是滇中、关天、成渝、兰西等4个经济区与城市群受影响严重;14个集中连片特困地区中,滇西边境、乌蒙、秦巴、六盘等4个地区受影响严重,深度贫困区的“三州”受影响严重。这些区域需要在地质灾害防治和国土空间规划中予以特别关注。 相似文献
6.
Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Jennie Watson-Lamprey Norman Abrahamson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(5):477-482
A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2). 相似文献
7.
地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务. 相似文献
8.
地震荷载作用下顺层岩体边坡变形特征分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
应用二维离散元程序UDEC计算了地震荷载作用下边坡的位移,并将计算结果与Newmark法计算结果及震后现场实测值进行了对比。结果表明,Newmark法计算得到的位移值较实测值偏小,离散元计算得到的位移结果较Newmark法更接近于实测值。在此基础上,初步分析了地震荷载作用下坡高、坡角、岩层倾角等因素对顺层岩体边坡位移的影响规律。由分析结果可知,地震荷载下顺层岩体边坡的位移并不随坡高增加而单调增大,在坡高约100 m时位移达到最大值,坡高超高100 m位移反而有所降低;当坡高超高200 m后,位移随坡高的变化幅度不大,顺层岩体边坡的位移随坡角增加而单调增大。随岩层倾角增加边坡位移明显增大;当岩层倾角大于层面内摩擦角时,随着岩层倾角的增大,边坡变形增长幅度明显增大。 相似文献
9.
稳定性分析对边坡工程具有重要的意义。为探究地震对预应力锚固边坡的影响,基于预应力锚索具有安全储备的特点,分析了地震作用下边坡的分阶段模型。在传统Newmark法的基础上,采用拟动力计算,推导了顺层岩质边坡的位移、锚固力和安全系数计算公式。结合工程两个算例,探究了不同锚索模型和地震累积作用下的边坡变形规律。由结果可知,当锚索锚固力取固定值时,边坡计算位移偏大,随时间呈线性增长。当考虑锚索的安全储备时,位移增长速率随时间逐渐减小,最后趋近于定值。不同锚索模型对位移影响较大,锚索储备作用不可忽略。同时地震会对预应力锚固边坡产生永久性影响。当再次发生扰动时,其表现为临界滑动阈值的提升,位移增长率与受震经历的加速度幅值呈反指数变化。以露天矿区边坡为背景,在抗震设防标准下确定最佳支护方案。 相似文献
10.
Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A recently proposed method, which incorporates the Newmark model to evaluate the earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, was applied to Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions of Italy. The method adopts a probabilistic approach to calculate values of critical acceleration ac representing the minimum strength required for a slope not to fail at a fixed probability level in a given time interval. Regional probabilistic hazard maps were generated for the two failure types most common in Irpinia (slump–earthflows and rock falls). The results suggest that quite moderate critical acceleration (0.05–0.08 g) could suffice to keep the slope failure probability low. However, the available data indicate that potential slide surfaces with ac below these values could be common in Irpinia, where, perhaps in relation to particular geo-environmental conditions, a relative large number of marginally stable slopes might survive other destabilising actions and fail even on occasion of not particularly strong earthquake shaking. 相似文献