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1.
Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probabilitye) and the relative importance of the outcome (importanceo). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed. 相似文献
2.
Mark Bebbington Shane J. Cronin Ian Chapman Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures. 相似文献
3.
Michael B. Turner Shane J. Cronin Ian E. Smith Robert B. Stewart Vince E. Neall 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Eruption episodes, where a series of eruption events are generically related, can include the eruption of a wide spectrum of volcanic activity over decadal periods. This paper concentrates on the opening phases of an eruption episode which occurred approximately 1800 yrs BP from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. These events spanned the eruption of differing bulk compositions and styles from two distinct vent locations; an andesitic sub-plinian eruption from the summit vent and a scoria cone-building eruption of basaltic magma from a satellite vent. Compositional profiles and zoning textures of plagioclase, amphibole and clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the opening andesitic event show evidence of magma mixing and subsequent crystallisation just prior to the initiation of the eruption episode. Titanomagnetite grain morphology and Ti variation suggest that the magma mixing event occurred within a few days to weeks before the eruption acting as a trigger for it. We present a magmatic model which is constrained by the petrological observations and eruptions of the episode. In this model magma differentiation at depth causes its rise and recharging of a mid-crustal magma storage area at 5–7 km. Although the recharging magma differed slightly in oxygen fugacity and temperature, it was compositionally and physically similar enough to the residing andesitic magma to allow efficient mixing. The petrological characteristics described here can be readily observed and enable identification of mixing events in other recent eruption episodes. 相似文献
4.
5.
Peter L. Horn 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):419-430
A bottom trawl survey was used to determine the position of a nursery ground for snapper, Chrysophrys auratus, in the North Taranaki Bight, New Zealand, and so indicate what area should be protected from potentially harmful fishing techniques. A nursery ground for trevally, Caranx georgianus, was also identified. The growth rate of snapper from the North Taranaki Bight is shown to be much faster than Hauraki Gulf and East Cape stocks, but quite similar to Tasman Bay fish. The onset of sexual maturity appears to be related to fish size rather than age, with about 80% of snapper being mature at a fork length of 25 cm. Recruitment success varies greatly between years, and successful recruitment may be related to warm spring temperatures. 相似文献
6.
Michael B. Turner Shane J. Cronin Mark S. Bebbington Thomas Platz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2008,70(4):507-515
The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to
their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic
eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed
radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected
from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated
by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions
provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last
event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years.
A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at
this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise
processes of magma rise, assembly and storage. 相似文献
7.
High‐quality 3D seismic data are used to investigate the effect of the Parihaka Fault on the geometry of submarine channels in Northern Graben of the Taranaki Basin, New Zealand. The Parihaka Fault comprises of four segments (S1–S4) with variable displacements. As part of the Plio‐Pleistocene Giant Foresets Formation, the older Channel Complex Systems 1 and 2 reveal a two‐stage evolution: (a) a syn‐tectonic depositional stage with channels incising the slope during early fault growth (ca. 4.5 Ma) and (b) a stage of sediment bypass (ca. 3 Ma) leading to the infill of hanging‐wall depocentres. The Channel Complex System 3 is syn‐tectonic relative to segment S3 and was formed at ca. 2.5 Ma. We show that the successive generation of new fault segments towards the north controlled the formation of depocentres in the study area. This occurred in association to rotation and uplift of the footwall block of the Parihaka Fault and subsidence of its hanging‐wall block, with fault activity controlling the orientation of channel systems. As a result, we observe three drainage types in the study area: oblique, transverse and parallel to the Parihaka Fault. This work is important as it shows that relay zones separating the Parihaka Fault segments had limited influence on the geometry and location of channel systems. Submarine channels were diverted from their original courses close to the Parihaka Fault and flowed transversally to fault segments instead of running through relay ramps, contrasting to what is often recorded in the literature. A plausible explanation for such a discrepancy relates to rapid progradation of the Giant Foresets Formation during the Plio‐Pleistocene, with channel complexes becoming less confined, favouring footwall incision and basinward deposition of submarine fans. 相似文献
8.
The Kaimiro Formation is an early to middle Eocene, NE-SW trending reservoir fairway in Taranaki Basin, and comprises a range of coastal plain through to shallow marine facies. A time of regional transgression is observed across the Paleocene–Eocene transition, which is linked to a general global warming trend and to regional thermal relaxation-related subsidence in New Zealand. The earliest Eocene transgressive deposits pass upwards into a series of cyclically stacked packages, interpreted as 3rd and 4th order sequences. Maximum regression occurred within the early Eocene and was followed by punctuated retrogradational stacking patterns associated with shoreline retreat and subsequent regional transgression in the middle Eocene.The Kaimiro Formation is considered a good reservoir target along most of the reservoir fairway, which can largely be attributed to a consistently quartz-rich, lithic-poor composition and reasonably coarse sand grain size. Correlations demonstrate that within the early Eocene the main reservoir facies are channel-fill sandstones overlying candidate sequence boundaries in paleoenvironmentally landward (proximal) settings, and upper shoreface/shoreline sandstones in relatively basinward (distal) settings. Middle Eocene reservoir facies are not represented in distal wells due to overall transgression at this time, yet they form a significant target in more proximal well locations, particularly on the Taranaki Peninsula.Depositional facies is one of the principal controls on sandstone reservoir quality. However, while reservoir facies have been proven along the length of the reservoir fairway, it is evident that diagenesis has significantly impacted sandstone quality. Relatively poor reservoir properties are predicted for deeply buried parts of the basin (maximum burial >4.5 km) due to severe compaction and relatively abundant authigenic quartz and illite. In contrast, good reservoir properties are locally represented in reservoir facies where present-day burial depths are <4 km due to less severe compaction, cementation and illitisation. Within these beds (<4 km) the presence of locally occurring authigenic grain-coating chlorite (shallow marine facies) and/or well-developed secondary porosity are both favourable to reservoir quality, while pervasive kaolinite and/or carbonate are both detrimental to reservoir quality.These results illustrate how an interdisciplinary approach to regional reservoir characterisation are used to help reduce risk during prospect evaluation. Assessment of both reservoir distribution and quality is necessary and can be undertaken through integrated studies of facies, sequence stratigraphy, burial modelling and petrography. 相似文献
9.
In this study we provide evidence for methane hydrates in the Taranaki Basin, occurring a considerable distance from New Zealand's convergent margins, where they are well documented. We describe and reconstruct a unique example of gas migration and leakage at the edge of the continental shelf, linking shallow gas hydrate occurrence to a deeper petroleum system. The Taranaki Basin is a well investigated petroleum province with numerous fields producing oil and gas. Industry standard seismic reflection data show amplitude anomalies that are here interpreted as discontinuous BSRs, locally mimicking the channelized sea-floor and pinching out up-slope. Strong reverse polarity anomalies indicate the presence of gas pockets and gas-charged sediments. PetroMod™ petroleum systems modelling predicts that the gas is sourced from elevated microbial gas generation in the thick slope sediment succession with additional migration of thermogenic gas from buried Cretaceous petroleum source rocks. Cretaceous–Paleogene extensional faults underneath the present-day slope are interpreted to provide pathways for focussed gas migration and leakage, which may explain two dry petroleum wells drilled at the Taranaki shelf margin. PetroMod™ modelling predicts concentrated gas hydrate formation on the Taranaki continental slope consistent with the anomalies observed in the seismic data. We propose that a semi-continuous hydrate layer is present in the down-dip wall of incised canyons. Canyon incision is interpreted to cause the base of gas hydrate stability to bulge downward and thereby trap gas migrating up-slope in permeable beds due to the permeability decrease caused by hydrate formation in the pore space. Elsewhere, hydrate occurrence is likely patchy and may be controlled by focussed leakage of thermogenic gas. The proposed presence of hydrates in slope sediments in Taranaki Basin likely affects the stability of the Taranaki shelf margin. While hydrate presence can be a drilling hazard for oil and gas exploration, the proposed presence of gas hydrates opens up a new frontier for exploration of hydrates as an energy source. 相似文献
10.
应用3D谱分解和相干属性刻画深水水道沉积要素，以新西兰塔纳基盆地为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
过去的几十年里,三维地震技术已经成为描述地下地层和沉积体系必不可少的工具。地震地层学和地震地貌学的快速发展大幅度提升了应用3D地震数据解释深水区沉积地层的能力。时间切片和层属性分析等技术能够增强对古地貌的解释,并且当与地层分析手段相结合时,能够对储层和盖层分布进行预测。多属性叠加技术能够进一步突出其常规技术方法容易忽视的地质现象。本文提出将频谱分解的不同组分与相干属性叠加突出深水水道沉积要素的边界和砂体分布,进而精细描述水道结构要素。通过应用该技术在研究区识别出四种沉积要素（1）点坝,（2）迁移的曲流环,（3）侵蚀水道,（4）决口。研究发现深水水道平面上从低弯曲度向高弯曲度变化。这个技术方法有助于解释人员识别复杂的沉积要素并且可以定性预测水道富砂要素,这对于勘探和开发中降低钻井风险是至关重要的。 相似文献