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This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season. 相似文献
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Climate dominantly controls vegetation over most regions at most times, and vegetation responses to climate change are often asymmetric with temporal effects. However, systematic analysis of the time-lag and time-accumulation effects of climate on vegetation growth, has rarely been conducted, in particular for different vegetation growing phases. Thus, this study aimed to leverage normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to determine the spatiotemporal patterns of climatic effects on global vegetation growth considering various scenarios of time-lag and/or accumulation effects. The results showed that (i) climatic factors have time-lag and -accumulation effects as well as their combined effects on global vegetation growth for the whole growing season and its subphases (i.e., the growing and senescent phases). However, these effects vary with climatic factors, vegetation types, and regions. Compared with those of temperature, both precipitation and solar radiation display more significant time-accumulation effects in the whole growing season worldwide, but behave differently in the growing and senescent phases in the middle-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere; (ii) compared to the scenario without time effects, considering time-lag and -accumulation effects as well as their combined effects increased by 17 %, 15 %, and 19 % the overall explanatory power of vegetation growth by climate change for the whole growing season, the growing phase, and senescent phase, respectively; (iii) considering the time-lag and -accumulation effects as well as their combined effects, climate change controls 70 % of areas with a significant NDVI variation from 1982 to 2015, and the primary driving factor was temperature, followed by solar radiation and precipitation. This study highlights the significant time-lag and -accumulation effects of climatic factors on global vegetation growth. We suggest that these effects need to be incorporated into dynamic vegetation models to better understand vegetation growth under accelerating climate change. 相似文献
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The Yalu Tsangpo River basin is a typical semi-arid and cold region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where significant climate change has been detected in the past decades. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the regional vegetation, especially the typical plant types, responds to the climate changes. In this study, the model of gravity center has been firstly introduced to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between NDVI and climate factors considering the time-lag effect. The results show that the vegetation grown has been positively influenced by the rainfall and precipitation both in moving tracks of gravity center and time-lag effect especially for the growing season during the past thirteen years. The herbs and shrubs are inclined to be influenced by the change of rainfall and temperature, which is indicated by larger positive correlation coefficients at the 0.05 confidence level and shorter lagging time. For the soil moisture, the significantly negative relationship of NDV-PDI indicates that the growth and productivity of the vegetation are closely related to the short-term soil water, with the correlation coefficients reaching the maximum value of o.81 at Lag 0-1. Among the typicalvegetation types of plateau, the shrubs of low mountain, steppe and meadow are more sensitive to the change of soil moisture with coefficients of -0.95, -0.93, -0.92, respectively. These findings reveal that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity between NDVI and climatic factors are of great ecological significance and practical value for the protection of eco-environment in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. 相似文献
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