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1.
Zhongqiang Liu Farrokh Nadim Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal Arnaud Mignan Kevin Fleming Byron Quan Luna 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2015,9(2):59-74
The effective management of the risks posed by natural and man-made hazards requires all relevant threats and their interactions to be considered. This paper proposes a three-level framework for multi-risk assessment that accounts for possible hazard and risk interactions. The first level is a flow chart that guides the user in deciding whether a multi-hazard and risk approach is required. The second level is a semi-quantitative approach to explore if a more detailed, quantitative assessment is needed. The third level is a detailed quantitative multi-risk analysis based on Bayesian networks. Examples that demonstrate the application of the method are presented. 相似文献
2.
Development of distributed time-variant gain model for nonlinear hydrological systems 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
XIA Jun WANG Gangsheng TAN Ge YE Aizhong & G. H. Huang . Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China . State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences Wuhan University Wuhan China . Faculty of Engineering University of Regina Wascana Parkway Regina Sask. SS A Canada Correspondence should be addressed to Xia Jun 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(6):713-723
Hydrological science is a branch of the earth sci-ences.To study the complexities of hydrological pro-cesses and the associated environmental problems,a systematic approach is desired.For instance,Dooge published Linear Theory of Hydrological System[1]in1973.Singh(1988)published Hydrological Systems[2],with its Chinese version[3]being translated by the Yel-low River Conservancy Commission in2000.Ge(1999)carried out systematic studies on the hydro-logical linear system theory,and produced … 相似文献
3.
气象水文模型耦合在黄河三花间洪水预报中的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
水文预报的有效预见期越长,预报精度越高,其对防洪减灾的价值就越大,而气象水文模型的耦合是延长水文预报有效预见期的一个重要研究方向。选取黄河流域三门峡水库以下、花园口水文站以上集水面积为研究区域,基于空间分辨率为90 m×90 m的数字高程模型数据构建数字流域水系,利用中尺度非静力模式MM5进行降雨预报和气温预报,并将之作为分布式时变增益水文模型降雨和蒸发计算的输入进行关键站点的水文预报,实现了分布式时变增益水文模型与大气中尺度非静力模式MM5的单向耦合及定量降水预报与洪水预报的结合,为花园口防汛工作提供了一定的参考价值。2012年与2010年的流量滚动预报结果相比,2012年预报结果的效率系数较大,径流深相对误差较小,说明2012年预报效果较好。对预报结果分析表明,实测的水情资料完整性直接影响预报结果,而滚动预报时间段的增加,水文预报的初始场对径流预报的影响逐渐减弱,水文预报的精确度逐渐提高,预报的效果变好。 相似文献
4.
Corrosion of offshore platforms is inevitable. In an ocean corrosion environment, the strength of a platform is weakened greatly. When simultaneously subjected to earthquakes or other extreme loads, the ultimate bearing capacity of the corroded platform is dramatically reduced, resulting in compounded damage from both corrosion and earthquake. Thus, the influence of corrosion cannot be neglected in the seismic performance investigation of platforms. The commonly used corrosion model in platform design is uniform corrosion, and the corrosion rate rule for any parts or zones in a platform is the same. In real cases, however, there are significant differences between the corrosion characteristics in different parts of a platform. Based on theoretical aspects and measured data, a zonal time-variant corrosion model of a platform is developed for a seismic collapse performance investigation. The pushover and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) methods are adopted here to calculate the collapse margin ratio (CMR), there serve strength ratio (RSR) and ductility coefficient (μ) that are frequently used for the safety reserve evaluation of a platform. The failure reason and collapse probability of platforms considering different service periods are compared. The most prominent feature of the proposed time-variant zonal corrosion model is to capture potential switch of weak location and resulting failure path of corroded jacket offshore platforms although the proposed model needs further calibration by more reliable in-field measured data. As expected, corrosion can definitely cause a reduction in earthquake resistance of a jacket offshore platform, as well as ultimate deformability. The coupled effect between the time-variant vibration properties of the platform and the spectral characteristics of selected motions, the collapse-level spectral acceleration (SA) does not always decrease with increasing corrosion degree. The curves corresponding to normalized CMR and RSR agree very well with each other in the early corrosion development stage and service period beyond 30 years. Some distinct differences can be found during the two stages, with the greatest difference up to 10% for the example platform. 相似文献
5.
盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
盐岩是一种典型的流变性材料,其蠕变特性对建于其中的储库稳定性具有重要影响,储库可靠性具有明显时变特性。虽然在盐岩的蠕变力学特性及其变形特性方面,前人已做了大量的研究工作,但国内外在基于随机力学理论的盐岩储备库时变可靠度风险分析方面的研究尚不多见。以国内某盐岩地下储气库为例,建立了相应的可靠度计算功能函数,开展储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及储库风险分析研究。以储库的蠕变体积收缩率为风险控制指标,采用响应面法结合Monte-Carlo抽样,对储气库进行设计运营期内不同内压条件下蠕变随机力学计算,得出了储库可靠指标随时间的变化规律及风险发生水平,拟合出满足工程可靠度要求的体积收敛率限值与储气内压的关系式,并探讨了储气库可靠性对主要随机因素的敏感性,结论可为盐岩地下储气库的安全运行和后期维护提供理论依据 相似文献
6.
在传统的大地坐标参考框架转换中,参考点都被固定在同一个历元。由于各种地球动力学现象的存在,以大地测量为目的的静态参考系统已不存在,同时随着高精度参考框架的连续观测和测定,参考框架的转化必须顾及时变性。本文讨论了时变参考框架转换中2个互逆的过程,采纳了相似转换中参考点之间的内在约束来克服转换中人为的公式简化和秩亏问题。通过数值计算分析,该方法成功实现了坐标框架之间的转换,并保持了尺度、旋转和平移参数及其变化率精度的独立性。 相似文献
7.
海平面上升导致的地下水入侵沿海地区的建筑地基造成显著风险。提出了一个考虑地下水侵入导致土壤强度退化的沿海建筑地基韧性模型。该模型由地基的性能函数在服役期内的积分得到。考虑条形基础的韧性,其极限承载力由Terzaghi公式描述。韧性模型考虑气候变化背景下地下水位的上升对土壤强度的影响。通过一个算例,展示了所提出的韧性模型的适用性。结果表明,如果不考虑气候变化影响下地下水位的上升,则会得到不保守的结构韧性评估结果。结构全寿命周期内的韧性也取决于所采用的维护措施（即,修复受损的结构性能）。未来的研究中,还应考虑其他因素（如锈蚀）对沿海建筑地基性能退化的联合影响。 相似文献
8.
考虑软土蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度的衰减效应,建立了软土长期强度模型,用以量化由于土体蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度参数随时间的变化规律。将时变可靠度理论结合有限元强度折减法,提出了考虑软土蠕变对强度影响的高桩码头岸坡时变可靠度算法。采用拉丁超立方抽样方法来改进传统蒙特卡罗法的随机抽样过程,提高计算效率。针对某一岸坡实例,将采用本文算法计算得到的可靠度结果与其他算法评估的结果进行对比分析,验证本文算法的可靠性。最后以我国沿海某高桩码头岸坡为例,基于本文算法评估了该码头岸坡的时变可靠度,分析了岸坡稳定性的时变规律。文中提出的时变可靠度分析方法不仅可以为在役高桩码头岸坡的安全评估提供强有力的技术支撑,同时也能为一些新建工程项目提供一定的参考应用价值。 相似文献
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为了解决由降雨强度引起的径流汇流的非线性问题,提出一种基于SCS(United States Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service)流速公式的时变分布式单位线计算方法。引入参考雨强表征SCS公式中流速系数对应的水力条件。由降雨过程的时段雨强与参考雨强的比值构成一个量纲一因子,将该因子加入SCS公式后使其能够考虑降雨对流速的影响。改进后的流速公式用于计算一次降雨过程中不同降雨时段对应的时变分布式单位线,时变分布式单位线与新安江模型的产流模块构成降雨径流模型,将模型用于裴河流域率定参考雨强。率定后的模型用于谭家河流域进行应用检验,结果显示,确定性系数大于等于0.9的洪水场次,由时不变单位线的42%增大为83%。提出的方法能够显著提高流域水文模型的降雨径流模拟能力。 相似文献
10.
为探讨齿轮系统裂纹故障的非线性动力学机理,研究含裂纹故障的四自由度齿轮系统的动力学特性,考虑时变啮合刚度及非线性间隙的影响,建立含裂纹故障的齿轮四自由度啮合耦合动力学模型,分析裂纹故障对系统啮合刚度的影响;采用谐波平衡法给出系统的解析解,分析裂纹故障及齿轮系统参数对齿轮传动系统的动力学行为的影响.结果表明,裂纹故障能够引起齿轮系统的幅值跳跃、分岔现象和系统共振,从而为齿轮箱的设计及裂纹故障的诊断提供依据. 相似文献