Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador |
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| Authors: | José Cepeda José Alexander Chávez and Celina Cruz Martínez |
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| Institution: | (1) International Centre for Geohazards, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Sognsveien 72, 0855 Oslo, Norway;(2) Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;(3) Department of Geotechnics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Th?kurova 7, 166 29 Praha 6, Czech Republic;(4) Oficina de Planificaci?n del ?rea Metropolitana de San Salvador (OPAMSS), Diagonal San Carlos, 25 calle poniente y 15 avenida norte, Col. Layco., San Salvador, El Salvador |
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| Abstract: | The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different
types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic
(ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers
for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction
is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris
flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to
estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful
in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or
updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of
the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador. |
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