| Numerical Simulation Study on the Scientific and Methodological Aspects of the Brazilian Proposal |
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| 作者姓名： | HU Guoquan DAI Xiaosu Greg BODEKER Andy REISINGER |
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| 作者单位： | Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration National Climate CenterBeijing 100081 China，China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China，National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research New Zealand，Climate Change Office Ministry for the Environment New Zealand |
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| 基金项目： | The work is supported by Climate Change Special Funds of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF2005-2-QH11). |
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| 摘 要： | 1. IntroductionObservations of surface air temperature indicatethat a significant global average warming has occurredduring the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) concludes that thereis new and stronger evidence that man has influencedthe climate. International negotiations have led to afirst step in combating climate change with the UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, but further stepsare needed in …
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| 收稿时间： | 2005/5/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/1/2005 12:00:00 AM |
Numerical Simulation Study on the Scientific and Methodological Aspects of the Brazilian Proposal |
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| HU Guoquan,DAI Xiaosu,Greg BODEKER,Andy REISINGER.Numerical Simulation Study on the Scientific and Methodological Aspects of the Brazilian Proposal[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,19(4):447-456. |
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| Authors: | HU Guoquan DAI Xiaosu Greg BODEKER Andy REISINGER |
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| Institution: | Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center Beijing, 100081, China China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand Climate Change Office, Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, by using a simple climate model (SCM), a numerical simulation study has been conductedon the scientific and methodological aspects of Brazilian Proposal. First the initial check of simple climatemodel has been done, then we do some sensitivity studies on timeframes (attribution start and end dates,and evaluation date), and three attribution methods (marginal attribution method, proportional attributionmethod, and time-sliced attribution method), at last we get the main conclusions as follows: The simpleclimate model can represent the results of more complex climate model (e.g., HadCM3), and it is thus used tostudy the scientific and methodological aspects of the Brazilian Proposal. Because of the limited knowledgeof science and data, although attributing a part of temperature increase to different GHG (greenhouse gas)emission source, there is considerable temperature increase unattributed to regional emissions. Thereforeit is uncertain to make Brazilian Proposal as the method for the responsibility share of future GHG de-crease emission. The choices of different timeframes (attribution start and end dates, and evaluation date)and future emission SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) make great influence on the regionalcontributions to global climate changes, but different attribution methods have only a little influence. |
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| Keywords: | simple climate model (SCM) scientific and methodological aspects Brazilian Proposal |
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