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A 500 yr speleothem-derived reconstruction of late autumn–winter precipitation, northeast Turkey |
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| Authors: | Catherine N Jex Andy Baker Jonathan M Eden Warren J Eastwood Ian J Fairchild Melanie J Leng Louise Thomas Hilary J Sloane |
| Institution: | aConnected Waters Initiative, affiliated to National Centre for Ground Water Research and Training, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, 110 King St, Manly Vale, NSW 2093, Australia;bSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK;cNERC Isotope Geosciences Laboratory, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK;dFaculty of Science, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK |
| Abstract: | A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ18O for a stalagmite from Gümü?hane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross-validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ18O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back to ~ AD 1500 leading to the first long winter precipitation reconstruction for this region. Modern day October to January precipitation is linked to pressure fields in Western Russia. Anomalously lower reconstructed rainfall is recorded in AD 1540–1560 at which time higher pressure over the Caspian Sea region is inferred. |
| Keywords: | Speleothem Oxygen isotopes Turkey Precipitation reconstruction Caspian Sea Black Sea |
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