The Influence of Climate Warming on Soil Frost on Snow-Free Surfaces in Finland |
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| Authors: | Ari Venäläinen Heikki Tuomenvirta Riikka Lahtinen Martti Heikinheimo |
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| Institution: | (1) Finnish Meteorological Institute, Meteorological Research, P.O. Box 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland |
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| Abstract: | The influence of the predicted climate warming on soil frost conditions in Finland was studied using a climate scenario based on a Hadley Centre (U.K.) global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM2) run. HadCM2 results were dynamically downscaled to the regional level using the regional climate model at the Rossby Centre (Sweden). The future period this study focuses on is the end of the 21st century. The study was limited to ground surface conditions in which snow has been removed. The predicted air temperature rise was interpreted in terms of changes in soil frost conditions using an empirical dependence that was found between measured soil frost depths and the sum of daily mean air temperatures calculated from the beginning of the freezing period. On average the annual maximum soil frost depth will decrease in southern and central Finland from the present approx. 100–150 cm by about 50 cm. In northern Finland the change will be from depths of about 200–300 cm to about 100–200 cm depending on station. The annual maximum soil frost depth in the future would thus be about the same in northern Finland as it is in the current climate in southern Finland. In southern Finland after about 100 years the ground will seldom be frozen in December and even in January there will be no soil frost in about half of the years. In Central and northern Finland the probability of completely unfrozen ground in December–March is very small, even in the future. |
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