| 气候变化对华北地区水资源供需影响的模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 高彦春,于静洁,刘昌明.气候变化对华北地区水资源供需影响的模拟预测[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(6):616-624. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高彦春 于静洁 刘昌明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目资助(KZCX-SW-317) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文选择海河南系为华北地区的代表性区域,建立了该区水资源系统动力学模型(SD),对供需平衡在不同气候情景下的发展变化趋势进行了模拟预测。预测结果表明:气候变化对研究区水资源系统的正常运行将产生一定影响,尤其是对经济发展速度带来一定影响,但在本文假设的气候变化幅度范围,即(T≤1.8℃,ΔP≥-0.24%,气候变化不会改变水资源系统运行和发展的基本规律。经济发展、科技进步、人口增长和管理水平提高是水资源系统运行和发展变化的内在动力,决定着水资源系统及其供需平衡发展变化的基本趋势。预测结果可作为研究区需水管理和节水水平提高的定量参照指标,同时也为其经济规划、水资源调配提供必要的决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水资源系统 系统动力学 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6301(2002)06-0616-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-08-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/1/2002 12:00:00 AM |
A Simulated Prediction of Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand in the North-China-Region |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing100101 China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, by considering the Middle Route region of Water Transfer from South to North as background, the South Part of Haihe River basin(SPHR) is selected as the representative area for the North China region. System Dynamics (SD) model of SPHR water resources system is established, and the variation trends of water supply and demand under different hypothetical climate change scenarios are predicted by simulation. The prediction results show that climate change will disturb the operation of SPHR water resources system, especially affect its economic growth rate However, within the range of climate change (ΔT≤18℃,ΔP≥-024%), climate change can not change the operation law of SPHR water resources system, which is controlled by internal driving factors, such as economy growth, science and technology development, population increase and water saving improvement, etc. The results also verified the certain tendency of zero increase or negative increase of water demand and water shortage in future under the conditions of technology development and water saving improvement. The results provide the quantitative reference indexes for water demand management and water saving improvement, and also supply the necessary basis for decision making on economy planning and water transfer. |
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| Keywords: | climate change water resources system System Dynamics |
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