| 台风诱发暴潮极端潮位的预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘德辅,姜昊.台风诱发暴潮极端潮位的预测方法[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2009,39(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘德辅 姜昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学工程学院,山东,青岛,266100 |
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| 摘 要： | 以杭州湾为例,根据水文站历史潮位资料,采用改进的灰色马尔可夫预测模型对台风诱发暴潮的极端潮位进行预测.同时采用复合极值分布理论对可能出现的极端潮位进行概率预测,使预测结果更为接近真实数值.
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| 关 键 词： | 极端潮位预测 杭州湾 灰色马尔可夫链 复合极值分布 |
Prediction Method of Extreme Sea Level Induced by Typhoon |
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| LIU De-Fu,JIANG Hao.Prediction Method of Extreme Sea Level Induced by Typhoon[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2009,39(3). |
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| Authors: | LIU De-Fu JIANG Hao |
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| Institution: | College of Engineering;Ocean University of China;Qingdao 266100;China |
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| Abstract: | Taking Hangzhou Bay as an example and according to the historical sea level data of hydrological stations,the paper proposes a improved grey-markov chain model to predict extreme sea level induced by typhoon.At the same time,it uses compound extreme value distribution(CEVD) theory to make possibility prediction for probable extreme sea level.In this way,prediction results are close to the real data. |
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| Keywords: | extreme sea level Hangzhou Bay grey-markov chain compound extreme value distribution |
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