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Tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Part 2: structure and impacts at the event scale |
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| Authors: | Denis S Chang-Seng Mark R Jury |
| Institution: | 1. Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany 2. Department of Physics, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR, USA 3. University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa |
| Abstract: | The southwest Indian Ocean (5°–20°S, 45°–70°E) experiences frequent tropical cyclones (TC) in the December–March season. In this paper, TC composite and case-study structure and impacts are studied using daily oceanic and atmospheric fields from model-reanalyzed data, satellite remote sensing, and in situ station data. The TC environment is characterized according to mean track: W-, SW-, and S-moving. Case studies of TC are investigated, and impacts such as storm surge and rainfall are evaluated through comparison of ‘real’ and ‘model’ datasets in the period since 1998. The northern sub-tropical jet stream is found to influence the intensity and track of TC in the SWIO. The composite SW-moving TC maintains intensity compared to the other tracks, which decline in strength. Variability is found in TC rainfall distribution, with maximum intensity in a spiral band 1–2 days before peak intensity, based on satellite estimates. There is a re-establishment of equatorial rainfall in the case of southward moving TC after peak intensity. The W-moving TC lacks monsoon inflow compared to the recurving TC. Comparisons are made between low-resolution model-estimated rainfall, various satellite products, and station-observed rainfall. TC spiral rain-band intensity is found to be similar to that reported elsewhere in the tropics, based on a limited sample of TRMM PR data and station reports. The satellite-derived daily rainfall out-performs NCEP reanalysis due to low resolution and underestimated diabatic heating. Similarly, the circulation within a 300-km radius of the composite TC is poorly resolved by re-analysis; winds, swells, and storm surges are too low by a factor of two compared with QuikSCAT and in situ measurements. This work will offer ways to adjust operational forecasts of winds, rainfall, and swells around tropical cyclones, so that TC risk and impacts are better managed. |
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