Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models |
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| Institution: | 1. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam 14473, Germany;2. Geography Department, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany;3. IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin 10099, Germany;4. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;5. Gansu Liancheng Forest Ecosystem Field Observation and Research Station, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730333, China;6. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, global warming is undoubtedly occurring. In this study, we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014, reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and further quantified the timing of warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in the region. The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well, although with differences across individual models. The projected surface air temperature, by 2099, would warm by 1.9, 3.2, 5.2, and 6.3 °C relative to the reference period (1981–2010), with increasing rates of 0.11, 0.31, 0.53, and 0.70 °C/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099, respectively. Compared with the preindustrial periods (1850–1900), the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5 °C threshold and will break 2 °C in the next decade, but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3 °C in this century. Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality. |
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| Keywords: | Surface air temperature CMIP6 Historical evaluation Future projection Tibetan Plateau |
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