| 灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀珍,孔纪名,王成华.灰色GM(1,1)残差修正模型在滑坡预测中的对比应用[J].山地学报,2007,25(6):741-746. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀珍 孔纪名 王成华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川,成都,610031;中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川,成都,610041
2. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川,成都,610041 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国科学院高新技术种子基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,经过不同方式的残差修正,分别建立了一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型和二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型。根据滑坡的监测资料,对变形曲线为光滑型滑坡(如黄龙西村滑坡、某滑坡)和阶跃型滑坡(如新滩滑坡、洒勒山新滑坡)分别建立了传统GM(1,1)模型和一阶、二阶残差修正模型,并对不同滑坡各模型的预测精度进行了分析比较。结果表明,残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。对变形曲线为光滑型的滑坡,二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度一般高于一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度;对变形曲线为阶跃型的滑坡,一阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于二阶残差修正GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 传统GM(1 1)模型 一阶残差修正GM(1 1)模型 二阶残差修正GM(1 1)模型 滑坡预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-2786-（2007）5-741-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-07-05 |
Comparison and Application of Grey GM( 1,1 ) Modified Residual Error Models in Landslide Predicting |
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| LI Xiuzhen,KONG Jiming,WANG Chenghua.Comparison and Application of Grey GM( 1,1 ) Modified Residual Error Models in Landslide Predicting[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2007,25(6):741-746. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiuzhen KONG Jiming WANG Chenghua |
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| Abstract: | Based on traditional grey GM(1,1) model,first modified residual error GM(1,1) model and second modified residual error GM(1,1) model are established by different modified residual error ways.According to the monitoring data of Huanglongxicun landslide,Xintan landslide,Saleshan new landslide and some landslide,traditional grey GM(1,1) models,first and second modified residual error GM(1,1) models for each landslide are established and prediction accuracy indexes of each model in different landslide are analyzed and compared.It is indicated that prediction accuracy of modified residual error models is much higher than traditional GM(1,1) model.Second modified residual error GM(1,1) model is higher than first modified residual error GM(1,1) model for the landslide which has smooth deformation curve,such as Huanglongxicun landslide;however,first modified residual error GM(1,1) model is higher than second modified residual error GM(1,1) model for the landslide which has step deformation curve,such as Xintan landslide. |
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| Keywords: | traditional grey GM(1 1) model first modified residual error GM(1 1) model second modified residual error GM(1 1) model landslide predicting |
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