| EEMD-Holt-Winters的电离层TEC预报模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周强波.EEMD-Holt-Winters的电离层TEC预报模型[J].测绘工程,2021,30(3):15-20. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周强波 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 核工业二三〇研究所,湖南 长沙 410007 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41761089);中国核工业地质局铀矿地质项目(201917;201930-1;202028-1;202021-1)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用IGS中心提供的全球电离层TEC数据,建立集合经验模态分解与Holt-Winters组合的预报模型。根据地磁活动情况,选取地磁平静时段和地磁活跃时段的低、中纬度TEC序列,分别采用EEMD-Holt-Winters组合模型和单一Holt-Winters模型进行建模预报。实验结果表明,地磁平静期文中模型的相对精度最优可达91.71%,均方根误差最优可达1.54 TECu,地磁活跃期文中模型的相对精度最优可达86.83%,均方根误差最优可达2.18 TECu,预报结果较单一模型有显著提高。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电离层 集合经验模态分解 Holt-Winters 总电子含量 |
A prediction model of ionospheric TEC based on EEMD and Holt-Winters |
| |
| ZHOU Qiangbo.A prediction model of ionospheric TEC based on EEMD and Holt-Winters[J].Engineering of Surveying and Mapping,2021,30(3):15-20. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHOU Qiangbo |
| |
| Institution: | (Changsha Uranium Geology Research Institute, CNNC, Changsha 410007, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the global ionospheric TEC data provided by IGS center to establish a forecasting model combining empirical mode decomposition and Holt-Winters. According to the geomagnetic activity, the EMD-Holt-Winters combination model and the single Holt-Winters model are used to model and forecast the low and mid-latitude TEC sequences in the periods of geomagnetic calm and activity respectively. The experimental result shows that the relative accuracy of the model in this paper can reach 91.71%, the root mean square error can reach 1.54 TECu, the relative accuracy of the model can reach 86.83%, and the root mean square error can reach 2.18 TECu during the period of geomagnetic activity. Compared with the single model, the forecast result is significantly improved. |
| |
| Keywords: | ionosphere ensemble empirical mode decomposition Holt-Winters total electron content |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
