| 三峡库区流域面雨量预报模糊检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 周国兵.三峡库区流域面雨量预报模糊检验[J].气象科技,2005,33(2):120-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周国兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆市气象台,重庆,400039 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局三峡三期工程气象保障服务项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用面雨量模糊评分方法，对三峡库区流域面雨量预报中3种客观预报(相似预报、T213降水预报、MM5模式预报)和面雨量综合集成预报结果进行综合评定。检验结果表明，3种预报模式对流域面雨量预报水平相差不大，冬半年的预报评分高于夏半年。在业务中采用动态权重系数法对3种预报方法预报结果进行集成，其集成预报的评定质量高于每种单独预报质量。在流域面雨量预报质量检验中采用了模糊评分法，该方法能够较为客观地反映预报和实况之间的差距，也可以用于降水定量预报评定中。
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| 关 键 词： | 面雨量预报 三峡库区 流域 预报结果 权重系数法 模糊评分法 评分方法 相似预报 客观预报 降水预报 T213 综合评定 综合集成 模式预报 检验结果 预报水平 预报模式 预报评分 预报方法 预报质量 集成预报 质量检验 定量预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年11月19 |
Fuzzy Assessment of Area Rainfall Forecast in Three Gorges Reservoir Valley |
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| Zhou Guobing.Fuzzy Assessment of Area Rainfall Forecast in Three Gorges Reservoir Valley[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2005,33(2):120-123. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Guobing |
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| Abstract: | By means of the fuzzy grading method, the ensemble area rainfall forecast and the three prediction models used in the area rainfall prediction over the Three Gorges Reservoir Valley (analogy forecast, MM5 model and T213) are assessed comprehensively. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the analogy forecast method is about the same as those of MM5 model and T213 rainfall prediction, and the prediction accuracy in winter is better than in summer for all the three prediction models. In practice, the dynamically weighted coefficient method is adopted in the integration of the three prediction models, to make full play of their advantages. The integrated forecast performed better than the three methods. It is proved that the fuzzy assessment method of drainage area rainfall can be used in quantitative rainfall forecast assessment because it can reflect objectively the difference between predicted and actual rainfall. |
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| Keywords: | area rainfall Three Gorges fuzzy grading |
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