| “一带一路”沿线国家政治-经济-社会风险综合评估及防控 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘海猛,胡森林,方恺,何光强,马海涛,崔学刚.“一带一路”沿线国家政治-经济-社会风险综合评估及防控[J].地理研究,2019,38(12):2966-2984. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘海猛 胡森林 方恺 何光强 马海涛 崔学刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049;华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海,200062;浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州,310058;华侨大学海上丝绸之路研究院,厦门,361021 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040400) |
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| 摘 要： | 开展“一带一路”沿线国家的风险评估对“五通”目标的实现和“走出去”战略具有重要意义。基于政治、经济和社会三个维度18个指标构建评价体系,对“一带一路”沿线74个国家的综合风险进行评估和排序,运用空间自相关、冷热点分析等剖析了2001—2016年不同风险的时空演变特征,并提出风险防控建议。结果表明：① 2001—2016年,“一带一路”沿线国家综合风险整体呈下降趋势,政治风险变化幅度较小,经济风险经历了“下降-上升-再下降-再上升”的演变过程,社会风险总体呈下降趋势,综合风险波动剧烈的国家主要集中在西亚、欧洲和东南亚;② 2001—2016年,“一带一路”沿线国家政治、经济、社会风险均存在显著的集聚性和区域差异性,高危险和较危险等级国家主要分布在北非、中亚、西亚、南亚和东南亚;③ 政治、经济和社会3个风险子系统存在较显著的相关性,政治风险高的国家往往伴随着较高的经济和社会风险;④ 中国对“一带一路”部分国家的投资存在投资量大与风险等级高并存的“投资悖论”现象。未来应从政府和企业两个层面共同努力,建立动态评级和预警机制,做好风险防控,逐步打造“一带一路”利益共同体、责任共同体和命运共同体。
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| 关 键 词： | 一带一路 政治风险 经济风险 社会风险 对外投资 时空演变 风险防控 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019-02-10 |
A comprehensive assessment of political,economic and social risks and their prevention for the countries along the Belt and Road |
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| LIU Haimeng,HU Senlin,FANG Kai,HE Guangqiang,MA Haitao,CUI Xuegang.A comprehensive assessment of political,economic and social risks and their prevention for the countries along the Belt and Road[J].Geographical Research,2019,38(12):2966-2984. |
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| Authors: | LIU Haimeng HU Senlin FANG Kai HE Guangqiang MA Haitao CUI Xuegang |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China3. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China4. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China5. Maritime Silk Road Institute, Huaqiao University, Xiamen 361021, Fujian, China |
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| Abstract: | Assessing and preventing national risks along the Belt and Road are of great importance to the realization of the “Five Connectivity” goal and “Go Global” strategy. China had signed cooperation documents with more than 120 countries and 29 international organizations on jointly constructing the Belt and Road by March 2019. However, most regions along the Belt and Road are developing countries and emerging economies, with immature market economic system and relatively backward infrastructure. Some countries are suffering from a lack of stable political situation, high governance efficiency, complete legal systems and ideal trade patterns. Moreover, religious and refugee issues in some of these countries are prominent, which pose many potential risks to foreign investment, business exchanges, outbound tourism, cultural and scientific exchanges, etc. In this study, by choosing 18 indicators from the dimensions of politics, economy and society, an evaluation system was established to rank the overall risk of 74 countries along the Belt and Road. We analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution of different risks during 2001-2016 by Moran's I and hotspot analysis, and put forward suggestions for risk prevention and control. The results demonstrate that: (1) From 2001 to 2016, the overall risk of 74 countries along the Belt and Road shows a downward trend, of which the change to political risk is relatively small, economic risk experienced a fluctuation of "down-up-down-up", and social risk generally shows a downward trend. The overall risks are very volatile in some countries particularly in West Asia, Europe and Southeast Asia; (2) The political, economic and social risks of 74 countries along the Belt and Road show significant spatial agglomeration and regional differences during 2001-2016. The countries with high risk levels are mainly distributed in North Africa, Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia; (3) The political, economic and social risk subsystems are significantly correlated with each other, and countries with high political risk are often accompanied by high economic and social risks; and (4) There is an "investment paradox" in some countries, namely, large amount of investment and high risk level coexist in the Belt and Road region. As such, the governments and enterprises should make joint efforts to establish dynamic rating and early warning mechanism to prevent and control risks. We should better align our policies with existing regional strategies such as the Eurasian Economic Union, the Bright Road of Kazakhstan, and the Mongolian Grassland Road, establish the mechanism of offshore financial risk control, participate more actively in the formulation and application of international and regional rules, and pay more attention to corporate social responsibility. By doing so, we will gradually achieve a Belt and Road community with shared interests, shared responsibilities and shared future. |
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| Keywords: | the Belt and Road Initiative political risk economic risk social risk outward foreign investment spatial-temporal evolution risk prevention and control |
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