| APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION |
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| 作者姓名： | 张根生 费建芳 黄小刚 卢 龙 |
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| 作者单位： | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science &
Technology;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science &
Technology;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science &
Technology;The 4th unit of Garrison No.92528 |
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| 基金项目： | National Key Fundamental Research Project of China (40175012) |
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| 摘 要： | The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its
adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors
generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct
some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial
field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon
circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea.
Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the
initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track
forecast is better.
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| 关 键 词： | four-dimensional data assimilation BDA scheme GFDL scheme typhoon numerical simulation track forecasting |
APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION |
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| ZHANG Gen-sheng,FEI Jian-fang,HUANG Xiao-gang and LU Long.APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,12(2):179-185. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Gen-sheng FEI Jian-fang HUANG Xiao-gang and LU Long |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science & Technology, Nanjing 211101 China
2. The 4th unit of Garrison No.92528 Shanghai 200436 China |
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| Abstract: | The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its
adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors
generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct
some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial
field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon
circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea.
Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the
initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track
forecast is better. |
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| Keywords: | four-dimensional data assimilation BDA scheme GFDL scheme typhoon numerical simulation track forecasting |
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