| 新疆人口变动对生态环境的未来影响趋势与协调发展对策——以塔里木河流域为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 童玉芬.新疆人口变动对生态环境的未来影响趋势与协调发展对策——以塔里木河流域为例[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(2):177-181. |
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| 作者姓名： | 童玉芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学 经济与管理学院人口研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金"新疆人口变动与生态环境演变的互动机制和未来趋势"项目(40161008)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对一个典型干旱区内陆河流域——新疆塔里木河流域的人口与生态环境演变之间互动机制的分析, 用系统动力学方法建立了该流域的动态仿真模型。通过模型的多方案运行, 观察未来该流域各种人口变动条件下生态环境的可能演变后果, 从而提出有利于流域生态环境的合理人口变动条件与政策, 为有关部门提供决策参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 人口变动 环境演变 未来趋势 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-694X(2004)02-0177-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-01-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年1月12日 |
Possible Impact of Population Change on Environmental Evolution of Xinjiang in Future and Countermeasures--Taking Tarim River Valley as an Example |
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| Tong Yu-fen.Possible Impact of Population Change on Environmental Evolution of Xinjiang in Future and Countermeasures--Taking Tarim River Valley as an Example[J].Journal of Desert Research,2004,24(2):177-181. |
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| Authors: | Tong Yu-fen |
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| Institution: | Population Research Institute in College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of analysis on the interacting mechanics between population change and environmental evolution in a typical arid inland valley_Tarim River Valley, we construct an interrelationship model of population and environmental evolution with systematic dynamics method. Through setting a series of scenarios, this model shows various possible outputs of eco-environment change in the lower reaches under different conditions of population change in the whole valley as well as different reaches. By comparing those outputs, we gain some important conclusions: Firstly, if the population growth rates in all reaches holds zero level, the EDI(environmental degradation index) will drop obviously, and the growth degree of the EDI will be delayed by at least 5-years. Secondly, the impact from the population in headstream on lower reaches environment is the heaviest when comparing with the impacts from other reaches, so controlling the population growth of headstream is a key factor. In the end of the paper we point out some countermeasures and suggestions from both birth control and immigration aspects. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang population change environmental evolution future trend |
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