| 中强地震平静是汶川8.0级地震前最显著的地震活动异常 |
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| 引用本文： | 高立新,孙加林,张晖.中强地震平静是汶川8.0级地震前最显著的地震活动异常[J].地震,2010,30(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 高立新 孙加林 张晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区地震局,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010010 |
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| 基金项目： | 2009年度中国地震局震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务(2009010108) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对四川地区1923年以来5.0级以上地震资料进行了分析研究。结果表明,研究区中强地震经历了4个较为完整的周期活动,中强地震具有16年的准周期活动特征,平静期持续5年左右,从2008年汶川8.0级地震开始,研究区将进入第5个活动周期,其可能的持续时间为2024年前后。2008年汶川8.0级地震前,5.0~5.9级、6.0~6.9级、7.0~8.0级三个档次的地震事件的平静间隔均达到统计时段的历史之最,三个档次地震的平静均被汶川8.0级地震直接打破,中强地震超长平静是汶川8.0级地震前最为显著的异常现象。
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| 关 键 词： | 汶川8.0级地震 平静间隔 地震活动 前兆异常 |
Moderate-to-strong Earthquake Quiescence is the Most Significant Seismic Anormaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake |
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| GAO Li-Xin,SUN Jia-lin,ZHANG Hui.Moderate-to-strong Earthquake Quiescence is the Most Significant Seismic Anormaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 Earthquake[J].Earthquake,2010,30(1). |
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| Authors: | GAO Li-Xin SUN Jia-lin ZHANG Hui |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;Hohhot 010010;China |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzed M_S≥5.0 earthquakes since 1923 in the region of Sichuan. The result shows that strong earthquakes in the region experienced four complete cycle of seismic activities, and there is a 16-year quasi-periodic characteristics for medium to strong earthquake. The quiet period lasted about 5 years. Starting from the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake, the study area will enter into the fifth active cycle and continue to about 2024. Quiescence intervals for M5.0～5.9, M6.0～6.9, and M7.0～8.0 events reached the historical highest before the May 12 , 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake. Long-term quiescence of strong earthquake is the most significant anomaly before the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake. |
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| Keywords: | Wenchuan 8 0 earthquake Quiescence interval Earthquake Activity Precursory anormaly |
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