Risk-Based Reanalysis of the Effects of Climate Change on U.S. Cold-water Habitat |
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| Authors: | Benjamin L Preston |
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| Institution: | (1) Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 550, Arlington, Virginia 22201, USA;(2) Present address: CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, 107-121 Station Street, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Summary A probabilistic risk assessment was conducted for the effects of future climate change on U.S. cold-water habitat. Damage
functions for the loss of current cold-water fish habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountain region were integrated
with probability distributions for U.S. June/July/August (JJA) temperature change using Monte Carlo techniques. Damage functions
indicated temperature thresholds for incipient losses (≥5%) of cold-water habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountains
of 0.6 and 0.4 ∘C, respectively. Median impacts associated with different temperature distributions suggested habitat loss in 2025, 2050,
and 2100 of approximately 10, 20, and 30%, respectively, for the United States and 20, 35, and 50%, respectively, in the Rocky
Mountains. However, 2100 losses in excess of 60% and 90% were possible for the United States and the Rocky Mountains, respectively,
albeit at low probabilities. The implementation of constraints on greenhouse gas emissions conforming to the WRE750/550/350
stabilization scenarios had little effect on reducing habitat loss out to 2050, but median effects in 2100 were reduced by
up to 20, 30, and 60%, respectively. Increased focus on probabilistic risk assessment may be a profitable mechanism for enhancing
understanding and communication of climate change impacts and, subsequently, risk management. |
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