Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM |
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| Authors: | S Kotlarski T Bosshard D Lüthi P Pall C Schär |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,ETH Zurich,Zürich,Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | A transient climate scenario experiment of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is analyzed to assess the elevation dependency
of 21st century European climate change. A focus is put on near-surface conditions. Model evaluation reveals that COSMO-CLM
is able to approximately reproduce the observed altitudinal variation of 2 m temperature and precipitation in most regions
and most seasons. The analysis of climate change signals suggests that 21st century climate change might considerably depend
on elevation. Over most parts of Europe and in most seasons, near-surface warming significantly increases with elevation.
This is consistent with the simulated changes of the free-tropospheric air temperature, but can only be fully explained by
taking into account regional-scale processes involving the land surface. In winter and spring, the anomalous high-elevation
warming is typically connected to a decrease in the number of snow days and the snow-albedo feedback. Further factors are
changes in cloud cover and soil moisture and the proximity of low-elevation regions to the sea. The amplified warming at high
elevations becomes apparent during the first half of the 21st century and results in a general decrease of near-surface lapse
rates. It does not imply an early detection potential of large-scale temperature changes. For precipitation, only few consistent
signals arise. In many regions precipitation changes show a pronounced elevation dependency but the details strongly depend
on the season and the region under consideration. There is a tendency towards a larger relative decrease of summer precipitation
at low elevations, but there are exceptions to this as well. |
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