Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion induced by morphological modifications of an active volcano: the case of Mount Etna,Italy |
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Authors: | Tarquini Simone Favalli Massimiliano |
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Institution: | (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa, Italy |
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Abstract: | Changes of the susceptibility to lava flow invasion at Mount Etna are quantified by using lava flow simulations on four Digital
Elevation Models documenting the morphostructural modifications of the volcano in the time interval 1986–2007. The probabilistic
code DOWNFLOW is used to derive the areas invaded by several thousands of lava flows obtaining, for each DEM, maps of the
susceptibility to lava flow invasion and of the lava flow hazard. These maps show, for the first time, the evolution of these
surficial properties with time, and render a quantitative image of the effects of topographic changes on the preferential
lava flow drainage paths. The results illustrate how the emplacement of new lava flows and the growth of scoria cones affect
the probability of inundation by lava flows. We conclude that the persistent activity of this volcano requires a frequent
updating of the topography for a reliable lava flow hazard assessment. |
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