| 棉铃虫的气象预测初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑞芳,任鹤麒.棉铃虫的气象预测初探[J].气象科学,1999(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑞芳 任鹤麒 |
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| 作者单位： | 徐州市气象局!22100 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对历史资料的分析研究，寻找出与棉铃虫发生发展有密切关系的气象条件及生物因子，建立各代棉铃虫始发期及发生程度的气象预测模式。对1994、1995年的各代棉铃虫发生情况进行了预测检验，效果良好。1996、1997年投入业务预报服务，预报与实际发生情况相符，为棉铃虫的有效防治提供了科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 棉铃虫 气象条件 预测 |
STUDY ON FORECASTING COTTON BOLLWORM WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS |
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| Wang Ruifang,Ren Heqi.STUDY ON FORECASTING COTTON BOLLWORM WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1999(1). |
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| Authors: | Wang Ruifang Ren Heqi |
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| Abstract: | Cotton bollworm is one of the main pests to endanger the cotton. Its biological characters are:the more eatable plants,the higher rate of reproduction and resisting insecticide easily. When the conditions are suitable,it will be able to break out. In the past years,many scientific Workers study on cotton bollworm,but a few study on forecasting the period of occurrence and total quantity of cotton bollworm,especially on the mid-long range forecast.It is important to predict the occurring initial stage and the total number eggs of cotton bollworm for preventing works. In this paper,the relationships between cotton bollworm and weather conditions was analysed,forecasting models for occurring earlystage and accumulating eggs of cotton bollworm was bulit up. The rates of imitation are all over 80%,and have tested in 1994 and 1995,and predicted in 1996 and 1997,the results are all satisfying. |
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| Keywords: | cotton bollworm weather conditions forecasting |
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