| A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis and its application to the Guangxi coast |
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| 作者姓名： | Xia Huayong Li Shuhua |
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| 作者单位： | Xia Huayong (Guangxi Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center，Beihai 536000，China)and Li Shuhua(Guangxi Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center，Beihai 536000，China) |
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| 基金项目： | This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 49261003. |
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| 摘 要： | A~as~Sof~~LIngeneral,sealevelisresolvedintOatrendtermplusaPeriedictermintheanalysisofsealevelvdriations(haetal.1996;ZuoandChen,1996;QinandLi,1997;Zhengetal.,1993;RenandZhang,1993),namely,thetimeequencesofmonthlyorannualmeansealevely(o)(t)canbeexpr~asy(o)(t)=T(o)(t) p(o)(t) X(o)(t) .(o)(t),(l)whereT(o)(t)isadefinitetrendterm;p(o)(t)isadefiniteperiedicterm;X(o)(t)isatimeseriesofrandomterm;a(o)(t)iswhitenoise.Thefunctionstructuresofthetrendtermaregenerallyunknown,whiledeterminingthetrendter…
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| 关 键 词： | Grey model periodic term monthly mena sea level maximum entropy spectral analysis |
| 收稿时间： | 1998/7/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998/10/25 0:00:00 |
A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis and its application to the Guangxi coast |
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| Xia Huayong,Li Shuhua.A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis and its application to the Guangxi coast[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,1999,18(3):325-335. |
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| Authors: | Xia Huayong and Li Shuhua |
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| Institution: | Guangxi Marine Monitoring, Forecasting Center, Beihai 536000, China |
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| Abstract: | A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same. |
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| Keywords: | Grey model periodic term monthly mena sea level maximum entropy spectral analysis |
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