| 一个降水预报的时间序列线性平稳预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王蕾,巴特尔,李栋梁,费晓玲.一个降水预报的时间序列线性平稳预测模型[J].甘肃气象,1998(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王蕾 巴特尔 李栋梁 费晓玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州市气象局，甘肃省气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用兰州１９４４～１９９７年的月平均降水资料，建立了线性平稳序列的降水预测模型，该模型使用了功谱密度函数中的最大熵法（或叫全极模型），并将特征多项式模大于１的根反射到单位圆内，再返回修正后的线性预测的系数。并对１９８６～１９９７年１１年的月降水做了预测试验，试验结果表明，该模型具有一定的预报能力，其中取１５阶预报效果较好。此方法在短期气候预测业务中，可作为台站月、季、年降水预测走向客观化、定量化方法的一种初步尝试
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| 关 键 词： | 线性预测 最大熵法（全极模型） 自回归模型 月季年降水预测 |
A Linear stable forecasting model of time series for monthly, seasonal and yearly precipitation forecasting of station |
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| WANG Lei ,BA Teer ,LI DongIiang ,FEI XaoIin Lanzhou Meteorology Bureau,Lanzhou , Gansu MeteoroioglCal Bureau,Lanzhou.A Linear stable forecasting model of time series for monthly, seasonal and yearly precipitation forecasting of station[J].Gansu Meteorology,1998(4). |
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| Authors: | WANG Lei BA Teer LI DongIiang FEI XaoIin Lanzhou Meteorology Bureau Lanzhou Gansu MeteoroioglCal Bureau Lanzhou |
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| Institution: | WANG Lei 1,BA Teer 1,LI DongIiang 2,FEI XaoIin 2 1Lanzhou Meteorology Bureau,Lanzhou 730020, 2Gansu MeteoroioglCal Bureau,Lanzhou 730020 |
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| Abstract: | By using maximum entropy method the precipitation forecasting model of linear stationary time series wasconstructed.In order to make the results stably,the roots of thecharacteristic polynomial,whose modes are more than l,areprojected to the unit ciit circle to modify the coefficients.On tye base of Lanzhou monthly average precipitation data in the range of 1944 to 1997,the monthly preciptation forecasting tests were made from 1986 to 1997.The orders of autoregresion model are chosen as 15,is the best. This model is objective and quantitative and is suitable for the monthly,seasonal or yearly precipitaton forecasting of any station. |
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| Keywords: | linear forecasting maximum entropy method autoregression model precipitation forecasting |
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