| Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system |
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| 作者姓名： | Song YANG WEN Min R Wayne HIGGINS |
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| 作者单位： | [1]NOAA＇s Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland 20746, USA [2]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)，国家自然科学基金，NOAA - China Meteorological Administration bilateral program |
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| 摘 要： | The operational climate forecast system （CFS） of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predictions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizontal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of monsoon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic timescale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encounters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-tointerannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequency variability of the Asian monsoon.
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| 关 键 词： | 亚洲夏季季风 天气预报 海洋气候 NCEP |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/7/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/2/27 0:00:00 |
Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system |
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| Song YANG,WEN Min,R Wayne HIGGINS.Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2008,27(3):88-103. |
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| Authors: | Song YANG WEN Min and R Wayne HIGGINS |
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| Institution: | 1.NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland 20746, USA2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The operational climate forecast system (CFS) of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predic-tions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizon-tal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of mon-soon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic time-scale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encoun-ters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-to-interannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequencyvariability of the Asian monsoon. |
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| Keywords: | Asian summer monsoon onset evolution synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability NCEPclimate prediction system |
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