| 海南岛近42年气候变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈小丽,吴慧.海南岛近42年气候变化特征[J].气象,2004,30(8):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈小丽 吴慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 海南省气象台,海口,570203 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用 1 96 1～ 2 0 0 2年海南岛 1 1个气象站各季和年的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降雨量等资料 ,对海南岛近 4 2年的气候变化作了较全面的分析。线性倾向估计表明 :季和年的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温具有显著增温趋势 ,特别是平均最低气温尤其显著。从全岛平均情况看 ,降雨量除了冬季有明显增加趋势外 ,其余各季和年的降雨量仅有弱的增加趋势 ;从各地区看 ,仅南部地区降雨量有显著增多趋势 ,其余地区各季呈弱的增加或减少趋势。Mann Kendall检验表明 :从2 0世纪 70年代末到 80年代末 ,各季和年的气温要素几乎先后发生了突变 ,80年代至今海南省进入明显的暖期。周期分析显示 ,各研究要素基本具有准 2～ 5年和准 7～ 1 1年的周期。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 线性倾向估计 突变检验 周期分析 |
Characteristics of Climatic Variation of Hainan Island for Last 42 years |
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| Cheng Xiaoli Wu Hui.Characteristics of Climatic Variation of Hainan Island for Last 42 years[J].Meteorological Monthly,2004,30(8):27-31. |
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| Authors: | Cheng Xiaoli Wu Hui |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of annual and seasonal mean air temperature,minimum and maximum air temperature and precipitation at eleven meteorological stations in Hainan Island from 1961 to 2002,the climatic change of Hainan Island is analyzed. The linear trend estimation indicates that annual mean temperature,minimum and maximum temperature have an evident warming trend,especially the mean minimum air temperature. Except winter precipitation appears to be an evident increase trend,the other seasonal and annual precipitation appear to be a weak increase trend in the region. The precipitation of the south part appears to be an evident increase trend,the other regions appear to be a weak increase/decrease trend. Mann-kendall analysis shows that from the end of 1970's to the end of 1980's,annual mean and seasons air temperature appear to be a transition,the warming was more evident since 1980's. The periodic analysis shows that the main period of temperature and precipitation are about 2-to 5-year and 7-to 11- year. |
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| Keywords: | climate change linear trend catastrophe test period analysis |
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