| 渔业产量和资源生物量数值模型及相关因子的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘群,王艳君,尤凯.渔业产量和资源生物量数值模型及相关因子的初步研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2005,35(3):375-381. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘群 王艳君 尤凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学生命科学与技术学部,山东,青岛,266003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目 (30 2 71 0 2 5)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 对于渔业的中长期预报计算，是渔业种群补充的关键问题。本文在单位补充量产量和单位补充量生物量模型中加入了亲体一补充模型即密度相关过程，并引入了白色噪音以模拟环境变化。结果表明：本研究(1)可以明确地给出渔业种群崩溃的可能性，估计出达到崩溃时的捕捞死亡率；(2)可以估计最大持续产量的绝对值；(3)引入的白色噪音可以模拟环境变化对产量与捕捞死亡率和产量与亲体生物量关系曲线的影响。虽然亲体补充关系仍多是个假设，补充与亲体之间存在的补偿机制需要进一步的研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 渔业的中长期预报 单位补充量产量 单位补充量生物量 亲体-补充模型 白色噪音 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-5174(2005)03-375-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年9月30日 |
Preliminary Study on the Numerical Models and Related Factors in Fisheries Catch and Biomass |
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| LIU Qun,WANG Yan-jun,You Kai.Preliminary Study on the Numerical Models and Related Factors in Fisheries Catch and Biomass[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2005,35(3):375-381. |
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| Authors: | LIU Qun WANG Yan-jun You Kai |
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| Abstract: | Recruitment in fish populations is one of the key problems in the long-term fishery forecast. This paper introduces the stock-recruitment model (i.e. a density dependent process) into the catch per unit recruit model and biomass per unit recruit model, and introduces white noise to simulate the changes in their environments. Results show that the work (1) can explicitly illustrate the possibility of stock collapse, and estimate the level of fishing mortality at which it may occur; (2) can estimate the maximum sustainable yield in absolute terms; (3) can simulate the effects of environment changes on the relationships of catch-fishing mortality and catch-spawning biomass with the introduced white noise. Although the stock-recruit relationship is largely an assumption, more research is needed for the compensation mechanism between spawning stock and recruit. |
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| Keywords: | long term fishery forecast catch per unit recruit biomass per unit recruit stock-recruit model white noise |
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