| CWRF对中国近海热带气旋活动季节和年际变化及环境场影响的模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 史文茹,陈海山,梁信忠.CWRF对中国近海热带气旋活动季节和年际变化及环境场影响的模拟[J].气象科学,2021,41(6):720-727. |
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| 作者姓名： | 史文茹 陈海山 梁信忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/ 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044;Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,MD,USA 20742 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家气候中心中国精细化区域气候预测系统研发项目（NCC2016013） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA-Interim再分析资料驱动CWRF模式对1982-2016年中国近海的热带气旋活动进行了模拟,分析了CWRF对热带气旋频数季节、年际变化和路径的模拟能力,并探讨了环境场模拟对热带气旋模拟的影响。结果表明:CWRF能够合理模拟热带气旋频数的季节和年际变化,但模拟的频数较观测总体偏低,季节变化模拟总体优于年际变化的模拟;模式基本上能模拟出热带气旋路径密度的空间分布,但CWRF明显总体低估了气旋路径密度。进一步分析发现,模式模拟的环境场对模拟结果具有十分重要的影响。850 hPa气旋性与反气旋性环流异常对热带气旋频数影响显著;200 hPa反气旋性环流异常与东亚西风急流对热带气旋路径影响较大;副高会影响洋面对流运动从而影响热带气旋频数,其南侧偏东风则会影响热带气旋路径;垂直风切变偏小,在不同纬度对热带气旋的影响是不同的。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 CWRF 大尺度环境场 数值模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/4/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/4/19 0:00:00 |
Simulation of the tropical cyclone annual and interannual activity near China and impacts of large-scale environmental fields with CWRF |
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| SHI Wenru,CHEN Haishan,LIANG Xinzhong.Simulation of the tropical cyclone annual and interannual activity near China and impacts of large-scale environmental fields with CWRF[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2021,41(6):720-727. |
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| Authors: | SHI Wenru CHEN Haishan LIANG Xinzhong |
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| Abstract: | The ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Mid-range Weather Forecast Center was used to drive CWRF model and to simulate the Tropical Cyclones (TCs) occurred during 1982-2016 near China. The effects of environmental fields on TC simulation were discussed as well. Results indicate that: CWRF could reasonably simulate the seasonal and interannual changes of TC frequency, but the simulated TC frequency is lower than observation, and annual cycle simulation is better than interannual variation simulation. Basically, CWRF could simulate TC track density spatial distribution, but the model obviously underestimated the observed TC track density. Further analysis reveals that environmental field plays an important role in the TC simulation. Cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomaly at 850 hPa is associated with TC frequency. East Asia westerlies jet and anticyclonic circulation anomaly at 200 hPa mainly affect the TC track density. Subtropical High (SH) is corresponding with TC development by influencing the convection over sea surface, and SH easterlies can cause track deviations as well. The smaller Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) has different impacts at different latitude. |
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| Keywords: | TC CWRF large-scale environmental field numerical simulation |
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