| 土地利用变化情景下杭州湾北岸极端洪灾风险评估 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 姜丽,於家,温家洪,唐进,齐蔓菲,王璐阳,张敏.土地利用变化情景下杭州湾北岸极端洪灾风险评估[J].地理科学进展,2021,40(8):1355-1370. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 姜丽 於家 温家洪 唐进 齐蔓菲 王璐阳 张敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海 200234 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(72074151);国家自然科学基金项目(51761135024);上海自然科学基金项目(20ZR1441500);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1503001) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 杭州湾位于长三角平原,该区域分布着大量的潮滩与湿地。未来随着海平面不断上升,更易引发自然灾害,尤其是风暴潮灾害,将使该地区社会经济发展面临巨大冲击。论文以多年土地利用与资产数据为基础,基于土地利用和资产的未来变化预测,结合多种未来极端洪灾情景,开展杭州湾北岸承灾体与暴露时空演化模拟,评估了上海市杭州湾北岸洪涝灾害风险。研究结果表明：从空间分布格局上看,现状情景下单位面积损失资产值的高值出现在浦东新区南部,而未来情景下单位面积损失值的高值覆盖整个杭州湾北岸南部沿海区域和金山区北部区域。就整个研究区而言,随着GDP的增长及极端洪灾情景下的暴露和淹没范围的增大,暴露资产和损失资产都在增长,年期望损失从现状情景的0.65亿元增长到未来典型浓度路径(RCP8.5H)情景下的3.04亿元。从风险评估结果来看,杭州湾北岸易遭受特大洪灾,必须实施洪灾风险敏感的城市规划,更新该地区的居民点和基础设施规划标准和规范。同时,应采取综合防范措施,加强杭州湾沿岸防洪能力。论文可为该区域未来城市规划、洪水风险应对措施和城市的韧性建设提供有效参考。研究方法相比传统的仅以当前土地利用及资产价值情景评估未来经济损失的方法更为合理有效,可为其他沿海地区的风险评估提供方法借鉴。
|
| 关 键 词： | 土地利用模拟 风险评估 未来情景 SLEUTH模型 杭州湾北岸 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-11-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-04-18 |
Risk assessment of extreme flood in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay under land use change scenarios |
| |
| JIANG Li,YU Jia,WEN Jiahong,TANG Jin,QI Manfei,WANG Luyang,ZHANG Min.Risk assessment of extreme flood in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay under land use change scenarios[J].Progress in Geography,2021,40(8):1355-1370. |
| |
| Authors: | JIANG Li YU Jia WEN Jiahong TANG Jin QI Manfei WANG Luyang ZHANG Min |
| |
| Institution: | School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The Hangzhou Bay, located in the Yangtze River Delta, is characterized by broad distribution of tidal flats and wetlands. As sea levels continue to rise in the future, natural hazards, especially storm surges, will be more likely to occur, which will have a great impact on the socioeconomic development of the region. Based on multi-year land use and assets data, this study conducted a simulation of the spatiotemporal change of elements at risk and exposures in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay. The simulation is based on predictions of future variations in land use and assets and multiple extreme flooding scenarios, in order to assess the losses of flood disasters in the region. The results show that: 1) High values of asset losses per unit area under the current scenario appear in the south of Pudong New District. In future scenarios, high values of asset losses per unit area will cover the entire southern coastal area and the northern Jinshan District in the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay. 2) The entire study area will witness a growth in asset exposure and losses under extreme flooding scenarios as the GDP and the exposed and inundated area increase. The expected annual damage will rise from 65 million yuan under the current scenario to 304 million yuan under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5H scenario in the future. The risk assessment results indicate that the north bank of the Hangzhou Bay is susceptible to extraordinarily large floods. Thus, risk-sensitive urban planning must be implemented. The standards and specifications on residential communities and infrastructures in the region must be updated. Meanwhile, comprehensive preventive measures must be taken to enhance the flood control capabilities along the banks of the Hangzhou Bay. This study can provide a basis for decision making of risk-based urban planning, flood-risk adaption measures, and resilience improvements within the study area. The proposed research method is more reasonable and effective than the traditional methods of assessing future economic losses, which are often based only on current land use and asset values. It can also provide a methodological reference for risk assessments of other coastal regions. |
| |
| Keywords: | land use simulation risk assessment future scenario SLEUTH model north bank of the Hangzhou Bay |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地理科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《地理科学进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
