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| 基于人口学特征的犯罪者行为时空倾向——以长春市南关区为例 | |
| 引用本文： | 赵梓渝,刘大千,高雪,肖建红,王士君,廉超.基于人口学特征的犯罪者行为时空倾向——以长春市南关区为例[J].地理科学,2021,41(8):1409-1418. |
| 作者姓名： | 赵梓渝 刘大千 高雪 肖建红 王士君 廉超 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛大学旅游与地理科学学院，山东 青岛 266071 2. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，吉林 长春 130102 3. 青岛大学商学院，山东 青岛 266071 4. 东北师范大学地理科学学院，吉林 长春 130024 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41771161，41630749，42001176）、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（20YJCZH241）、青岛大学引进人才科研启动项目（DC1900015714）资助 |
| 摘 要： | 聚焦犯罪者视角，基于2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪案件数据，运用logit模型揭示犯罪者人口学特征与其行为倾向的关系。实证研究表明：① 相近人口学特征犯罪者具有在相同特定的时间和城市区域实施犯罪行为的倾向和趋势。性别、年龄、教育程度、是否存在前科劣迹和户籍地依次对犯罪者的行为的时间与空间倾向带来了某些特定的影响；② 长春市南关区扒窃犯罪中，男性犯罪者具有在城市道路犯罪的地点倾向和夏季、秋季犯罪的时间倾向，女性犯罪者具有在人口热力值高犯罪的地点倾向和在10~21时犯罪的时间倾向，年长犯罪者呈现在商业、公服设施、道路犯罪的地点倾向和休息日、4~15时犯罪的时间倾向；③ 本地户籍犯罪者具有在商业、公服设施、道路犯罪的地点偏好，有前科的犯罪者有在人口热力高、10~21时犯罪的偏好。 |
| 关 键 词： | 犯罪主体 时空倾向 logistic回归 扒窃 长春市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-13 |
Spatial and Temporal Tendency of Criminal Behavior Based on Demographic Characteristics of Offenders:A Case of Nanguan District,Changchun |
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| Zhao Ziyu,Liu Daqian,Gao Xue,Xiao Jianhong,Wang Shijun,Lian Chao.Spatial and Temporal Tendency of Criminal Behavior Based on Demographic Characteristics of Offenders:A Case of Nanguan District,Changchun[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2021,41(8):1409-1418. | |
| Authors: | Zhao Ziyu Liu Daqian Gao Xue Xiao Jianhong Wang Shijun Lian Chao |
| Institution: | 1. School of Tourism and Geography Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China 2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China 3. Business College, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China 4. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, Jilin, China |
| Abstract: | It is helpful to understand the behavior tendencies of different groups of criminals so as to uncover the formation mechanism of urban crime pattern and conduct measures for crime control and prevention precisely. This article focuses on the perspective of criminal offender, based on the data of pickpocket cases in Nanguan District of Changchun City from 2010 to 2016, using logistic regression models to examine the relationships between the demographic characteristics of criminals and their behavioral tendencies. The results shows that: 1) Offenders with the common ‘labels’ in terms of the demographic characteristics or some attributes tend to conduct crime in some specific periods and areas in the city. Generally, the gender, age, education, criminal record, household registration have some influence on the spatial and temporal tendency of the criminal offenders respectively. 2) In the pickpocket cases in Changchun, the male offenders have the spatial and temporal tendency of committing crimes along the street and in summer and autumn, while the female criminals have a tendency to commit crime in the place with denser population and in the daytime (10-21 o’clock). The older offenders tend to commit crimes in the places of commercial areas, public service facilities as well as streets in the rest day and daytime (4-15 o’clock). 3) The local registered criminals tend to commit crimes in the commercial areas, public service facilities and on the street. The offenders with a criminal record are more likely to commit crimes in the areas with denser population and in the day time (10-21 o’clock). It is because the fact that offenders with the common demographic characteristics have the similar spatial and temporal behavior pattern that the crime profile based on the offender characteristics will be useful in understanding the behavior mechanism of criminals, uncovering the relationship between the criminal attributes and the space as well as the time, and providing precise and scientific measurements for crime prevention and control. |
| Keywords: | criminal offender spatial and temporal tendency logistic regression pickpocket Changchun City |
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