| 基于系统动力学的城市可持续性评估模拟——以京津冀为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨振山,杨航,孙东琪.基于系统动力学的城市可持续性评估模拟——以京津冀为例[J].地理科学,2021,41(9):1515-1524. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨振山 杨航 孙东琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）(XDA19040402);国家自然科学基金项目(41530751);中国科学院青年创新促进研究会会员项目(Y201815);中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所可桢杰出青年学者计划(2016RC101) |
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| 摘 要： | 构建了基于系统动力学的城市可持续性动态评估模型，以京津冀地区13个城市为例，评价与模拟2005—2035年各城市可持续发展水平的时空变化趋势。研究结果表明：① 由于资源禀赋和发展路径依赖，不同城市在子系统中的可持续性表现各异，各城市子系统间的可持续性也存在复杂、多样的交互关系；② 近年来京津冀地区各城市综合可持续性呈现出波动上升的趋势，以历史轨迹和当前的区域发展目标来看，未来地区整体可持续发展水平将大幅提高，但北京与其他城市的综合可持续性之间的断层客观存在，且将长期维持。
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| 关 键 词： | 可持续发展 系统动力学 城市 京津冀 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-06-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-11-18 |
Simulation of Urban Sustainability Based on System Dynamics:A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region |
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| Yang Zhenshan,Yang Hang,Sun Dongqi.Simulation of Urban Sustainability Based on System Dynamics:A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2021,41(9):1515-1524. |
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| Authors: | Yang Zhenshan Yang Hang Sun Dongqi |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Analysis and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | With the building of sustainable cities being listed as one of the sustainable development goals (SDG 11) of 2030 agenda, it is more urgent to evaluate and simulate the level of sustainable development of cities. Urban sustainable development is a complex system, but the traditional evaluation method is difficult to cope with the feedback mechanism and dynamic evolution. In this article, an urban sustainability assessment model based on the System Dynamics is proposed, covering six urban subsystems of economy, livelihood, risk, environment, resources and pollution governance. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a study case, this article used the model to evaluate and simulate the temporal and spatial trends of sustainable development level of each city from 2005 to 2035. The accuracy test was conducted by using the indicators of each city in 2017, and the relative error between the output value of the model and the actual value is less than 10%. The model can be used to evaluate and simulate the urban sustainability score accurately and the results show that: 1) Due to the dependence of resource endowment and development path, the sustainability in the subsystem of different cities varies. Complex and diverse interactive relationships among the urban subsystems in this region can be divided into three main types; 2) In recent years, the comprehensive sustainability of cities in the region shows fluctuating but rising trends. In terms of the historical trajectory and regional development policy, the level of sustainable development of all cities will be greatly improved in future, but the huge gap between the urban sustainability of Beijing and that of other cities exists objectively and is likely to be maintained for a long time. This article discusses the feedback mechanism among the variables in the urban system and the dynamic evolution of the sustainable development level of cities in the region, which is helpful to understand the complexity, dynamics and heterogeneity of urban sustainable development. In addition, the evaluation method proposed in this study can be applied to other regions easily to simulate the variations of different urban subsystems and comprehensive sustainability among cities, which is of great practical significance to formulate reasonable regional development policies and achieve the sustainable development goals for cities. |
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| Keywords: | sustainable development System Dynamics city Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
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