故障率理论在地震预报中的应用 |
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引用本文: | 黄世奇,林纪曾.故障率理论在地震预报中的应用[J].地震学报,1981,3(2):177-187. |
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作者姓名: | 黄世奇 林纪曾 |
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作者单位: | 广东省地震局 |
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摘 要: | 本文把可靠性理论中故障率的概念引用于地震预报,建立了一族新的可靠函数w1(t)=exp-taecsin(lnt+)].新可靠函数具有如下功能:1.其参数 a 可作为判别各地震活动期(大释放期、剩余释放期及积累期)的数值判据:当a1时为大释放期.2.其故障率函数能较好地描述各活动期内地震活动的起伏变化,并能进一步判断其地震活动的高低.3.当 c=0时,新可靠函数退化为怀布尔(Weibull,W)可靠函数,即后者是前者的一个特殊情形.用新的可靠函数对唐山7.8级地震、新丰江6.1级地震、滇东地震带及东南沿海地震带作了分析,效果较好.
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AN APPLICATION OF THE THEORY OF FAILURE RATE TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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Institution: | Guangdong Bureau of Seismology |
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Abstract: | The concept of failure rate in the theory of reliability has been introduced to the study of earthquake prediction, and an attempt has been made to draw a set of new reliability function w1(t)=exp-taecsin(lnt+)]It is found that:1. The parameter a may take as a numerical criterion to judge the three stages of seismic activity, i.e. a 1 for the principal energy release stage.2. The failure rate function can represent adequately the fluctuation of the seismic activity in each of the stages mentioned-above and can be used to judge the activity level in each stage.3. When c = 0, the new reliability function will be degenerated into the Weibull reliability function, that is, the latter is a special case of the former.A test has been made by applying the new reliability function to the Tangshan Earthquake (Ms =7.8), the Xinfengjiang Earthquake (Ms= 6.1), and to the seismicity of the seismic zones of Eastern Yunnan and of SB China coastal region with satisfactory results. |
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