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| 气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害变化规律研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈升孛.气候变化背景下湖北省水稻高温热害变化规律研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2013,36(2):51-56. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈升孛 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 海南省气象服务中心,海南 海口,570203 2. 华中农业大学 植物科学技术学院,湖北 武汉,430070 3. 海南省气候中心,海南 海口,570203 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项 |
| 摘 要： | 利用历年气象资料，运用数理统计方法，分析了湖北省1951—2010年水稻高温热害的动态变化，探讨了气候变化背景下高温热害的演变趋势与规律。结果表明，鄂东部、江汉平原部分地区水稻高温热害发生趋于频繁，且除西南部地区外的湖北省其他地区水稻高温热害最大概率出现的时间均有明显的提前，甚至每10a提前1d以上。最后，利用ArcGIS对湖北省的水稻高温热害变化趋势和风险程度进行了区划。 |
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水稻 高温热害 风险累积值 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/2/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/4/5 0:00:00 |
Dynamic variations of heat injury on rice in Hubei province under climate change |
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| Chen Shengbei , Liu Anguo , Zhang Yajie , Wu Kunti.Dynamic variations of heat injury on rice in Hubei province under climate change[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2013,36(2):51-56. | |
| Authors: | Chen Shengbei Liu Anguo Zhang Yajie Wu Kunti |
| Institution: | Chen Shengbei , Liu Anguo , Zhang Yajie , Wu Kunt( 1. Meteorological Service Center of Hainan, Haikou 570203, China 2. College of Plant Science and Technology in Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China 3. Climate Center of Hainan, Haikou 570203, China) |
| Abstract: | Based on the 1951-2010 highest temperature data in Hubei province, the dynamic variations of heat injury are studied by using mathematical statistics method. The results show that the heat injury events on rice occur more frequently in many regions of Hubei province. The occurrence time of maximal heat injury probability presents a significant advance in most area except southwestern Hubei, ahead more than 1 day per 10 years. According to the previous results, the spatial distribution of dynamic variation of heat injury on rice and the degree of risk are zoned by using the ArcGIS software. |
| Keywords: | Climate change Rice Heat injury Risk accumulationt |
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