Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning |
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| Authors: | Pruttipong Apivatanagul Rachel A Davidson Linda K Nozick |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA;(2) School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA |
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| Abstract: | Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total
travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone
who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that
strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level
optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane
approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is
a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision
on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including
for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically
important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient
enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate
a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario
then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina. |
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