| 极限时间法与临震预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘正荣.极限时间法与临震预报[J].地震,2005,25(1):41-50. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘正荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局, 云南 昆明 650041 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了每2次地震之间的时间间隔, 并指出在更大的地震发生前h′异常, 且有一个极限时间存在, 通常不会超过极限时间而发震。 若h′值连续异常, h′虽小但大于1; 则是短期异常的显示; 若出现单次或多次的高h′值异常。 如: h′＞4甚至h′＞9, 且本地或附近伴有较大(例如M≥4)地震出现时, 一般都是本地地震的临震异常。 用4次前震作了检验, 结果是满意的。 而且还研究了信息与干扰的问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 极限时间 临震预报 信息干扰 短期异常 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3274(2005)01-0041-10 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-06-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月7日 |
Limited time method and impending earthquake prediction |
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| LIU Zheng-rong.Limited time method and impending earthquake prediction[J].Earthquake,2005,25(1):41-50. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zheng-rong |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province; Kunming 650041, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the interval between two earthquakes, and points out that there exists an anomaly of h′ that has a limited time before a large earthquake. Usually, the earthquake occurs within the limited time. If the anomaly of h′ appears continuously, it is small but bigger than 1, that is a short-term anomaly. If one or more h′ anomaly appears, for example h′>4, even h′>9 and with bigger earthquakes (M≥4) nearby, it is usually an impending anomaly of local earthquake. Four earthquakes are used to examine the study and the result is satisfied. Finally, the information and disturbance are also studied. |
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| Keywords: | Limited time Impending earthquake prediction Information Disturbance Short-term anomaly |
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