| 基于灰色系统理论的河南旅游业发展研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 任宏伟,张吉献.基于灰色系统理论的河南旅游业发展研究[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(3):89-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任宏伟 张吉献 |
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| 作者单位： | 任宏伟,Ren Hongwei(河南省教育厅成人教研室,郑州,450003);张吉献,Zhang Jixian(安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南,安阳,455000) |
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| 摘 要： | 优越的地理位置和丰富的旅游资源使得河南的旅游业快速发展,对旅游业发展进行预测可以为旅游业发展决策提供帮助。运用灰色系统理论的灰色关联度分析法,对河南省旅游业的影响因子进行定量分析,得知影响河南旅游业发展的三大因素是国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值和民用汽车数量。建立河南国内旅游接待人数和国内旅游收入的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。结果表明,未来5年河南省旅游业发展势头强劲。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色关联度 灰色预测GM(1 1)模型 国内旅游人数 国内旅游收入 河南省 |
A Research on Henan Tourism Development Based on Grey Systems |
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| Ren Hongwei,Zhang Jixian.A Research on Henan Tourism Development Based on Grey Systems[J].Areal Research and Development,2011,30(3):89-92. |
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| Authors: | Ren Hongwei Zhang Jixian |
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| Institution: | Ren Hongwei1,Zhang Jixian2(1.Adult Education Teaching & Research Section of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China,2.School of Resources,Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Excellent location and rich tourism resources stimulate the rapid tourism development of Henan Province.By forecasting the tourism development tendency,it shows that the future tourism development maintain a momentum of healthy development.Based on the grey system theory,the method of correlation degree was used to analysis the factors of influence quantitatively,and the result is that the three primary influencing factors are GDP,PGDP and civilian vehicle quantities.The gary forecast GM(1,1)model for Henan... |
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| Keywords: | grey relation degree gary forecast GM(1 1)model domestic tourist arrivals domestic tourism income Henan Province |
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