| 全球变暖背景下北极海冰与东亚冬季风关系的变化及其机制 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑帅,孙博,邱振鹏,吴文星.全球变暖背景下北极海冰与东亚冬季风关系的变化及其机制[J].气象科学,2024,44(2):199-209. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑帅 孙博 邱振鹏 吴文星 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(42088101);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划支持项目(202310300001Z) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了进一步了解全球变暖背景下北极海冰与东亚冬季风的关系及其变化,本文选用东亚冬季风北模态及南模态作为东亚冬季风指数,利用滑动相关分析、回归分析及合成分析研究了全球变暖背景下1953—2021年北极海冰密集度与东亚冬季风关系的变化特征及其机制。结果表明:11月巴伦支海海冰密集度与东亚冬季风北模态之间的关系发生了显著变化,从1962—1977年显著正相关转为1983—1999年显著负相关,2000年以后两者无显著关系。1962—1977年11月巴伦支海海冰偏多对应东亚冬季风偏强,这是大气环流影响海冰的结果,11月的大气环流异常特征维持到了冬季,使得欧亚大陆上空大气呈现出北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)负位相,在增强东亚冬季风的同时将中高纬大陆干冷空气输送至巴伦支海,在表面风应力的作用下巴伦支海海冰增多。1983—1999年则由前一时期的大气环流影响海冰变为海冰影响大气环流,11月巴伦支海海冰显著减少在冬季激发出了北极涛动负位相,加强东亚大槽及东亚高空西风急流,从而使得东亚冬季风偏强。2000年以后北极海冰与东亚冬季风北模态的关系明显减弱,此时东亚冬季风与北极涛动的负相关关系更为显著。
|
| 关 键 词： | 全球变暖 北极海冰 东亚冬季风 北极涛动 |
| 收稿时间： | 2024/1/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2024/3/1 0:00:00 |
Changes of relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian winter monsoon under global warming and their mechanisms |
| |
| ZHENG Shuai,SUN Bo,QIU Zhenpeng,WU Wenxing.Changes of relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian winter monsoon under global warming and their mechanisms[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2024,44(2):199-209. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHENG Shuai SUN Bo QIU Zhenpeng WU Wenxing |
| |
| Institution: | School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to further understand the relationship between Arctic sea ice and East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM), as well as its variations under global warming, this paper investigated variation features and mechanisms of the relationship between Arctic sea ice concentration and EAWM during the period of 1953-2021 by using slide correlation analysis, linear regression and composite analysis, together with the EAWM north mode and south mode selected to measure the intensity and variation of EAWM. Results detected significant changes of the relationship between Barents Sea''s sea ice concentration in November and EAWM north mode from positive correlation during 1962-1977 to negative correlation during 1983-1999 and to insignificant relationship after 2000. With regard to mechanisms of the changes during 1962-1977, when November Barents Sea ice concentration and EAWM showed positive correlation, the anomalous atmospheric circulations in November maintained till winter and caused negative phase of Arctic Oscillation(AO) on Eurasian continent, which strengthened EAWM and transferred the cold dry air from mid-to-high latitude Eurasian mainland to Barents sea at the meantime, thus causing the sea ice concentration to increase. The negative correlation during 1983-1999, on the contrary, was the result of sea ice concentration''s impact on EAWM. Sea ice concentration in Barents Sea significantly decreased and further induced negative phase of AO in winter, thus strengthening EAWM by strengthening East Asian trough and East Asian westerly jet. The relationship between Arctic sea ice and EAWM after 2000 was insignificant, during which the relationship between EAWM and AO became more significant. This article investigated changes of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and EAWM, which can help better understand and predict the interannual variation of EAWM. |
| |
| Keywords: | global warming Arctic sea ice EAWM AO |
|
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
