| 中国北方未来50年土地利用变化模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 何春阳,李景刚,史培军,CHEN Jin,PAN Yaozhong,LI Xiaobing.中国北方未来50年土地利用变化模拟[J].地理学报(英文版),2005,15(2):177-186. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何春阳 李景刚 史培军 CHEN Jin PAN Yaozhong LI Xiaobing |
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| 作者单位： | Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China |
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| 基金项目： | 北京师范大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 1 IntroductionLand use m odelling is a useful tool to analyze the land use cause, process and result, torecognize the im pact of land use system change on ecological environm ent,and to support theland use planning and policy (IIA SA ,1998;Costanza etal.,…
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| 关 键 词： | 中国北部 土地利用 建模仿真 未来预测 生态环境 |
| 收稿时间： | 3 November 2004 |
Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years |
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| Chunyang He,Jinggang Li,Peijun Shi,Jin Chen,Yaozhong Pan,Xiaobing Li.Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2005,15(2):177-186. |
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| Authors: | Chunyang He Jinggang Li Peijun Shi Jin Chen Yaozhong Pan Xiaobing Li |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University;College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
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| Abstract: | Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different "what-if" scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change in northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase, importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time. |
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| Keywords: | northern China land use scenarios simulation |
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