Forecasting the impact of transport improvements on commuting and residential choice |
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| Authors: | J Paul Elhorst Jan Oosterhaven |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts changes in the spatial pattern
of the working population as a result of transport improvements. The choice of residence is explained by a new non-parametric
model, which represents an alternative to the popular multinominal logit model. Travel times between zones are approximated
by a normal distribution function with different mean and variance for each pair of zones, whereas previous models only use
average travel times. The model’s forecast error of the spatial distribution of the Dutch working population is 7% when tested
on 1998 base-year data. To incorporate endogenous changes in its causal variables, an almost ideal demand system is estimated
to explain the choice of transport mode, and a new economic geography inter-industry model (RAEM) is estimated to explain
the spatial distribution of employment. In the application, the model is used to forecast the impact of six mutually exclusive
Dutch core-periphery railway proposals in the projection year 2020.
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| Keywords: | Commuting Migration Rail infrastructure The Netherlands |
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